May 8th 2008 SANTO DOMINGO
From The Economist print edition
From The Economist print edition
The president heads for a third term
AFP
MUCH of the coastline is lined by all-inclusive resorts that resemble oversized cruise ships that have sprouted roots and spread along the beach. Most of the 4m tourists who visit each year never leave their resorts, where they consume imported food and drink. Climb into the hills behind and rugged motorcycles share the streets with loaded donkeys. A sign advertising a “call centre” refers to a place where a few people can call family or friends, rather than a back-office providing customer service around the world. Annual tropical storms and mudslides wreak havoc with the few roads. Over a tenth of the population has left for the United States in recent years. Despite these ups and downs, the Dominican Republic has moved forward over the past dozen years—for eight of them under Leonel Fernández, a lawyer who grew up in New York City. His first term in office, from 1996 to 2000, marked the arrival of democracy after the demise of Joaquín Balaguer, an elected strongman who ruled for much of the previous four decades. Mr Fernández appealed beyond traditional political parties, drawing respected independents into the government.
When he returned to power in 2004, after a costly and mishandled banking collapse, many hoped for a reprise. Sure enough, he stabilised the economy and restored vigorous growth. But the politics have been less inspiring. The government is stuffed with party men and has been dogged by corruption scandals.
Voters, with reason, seem to reckon that his opponents would be worse. Though Mr Fernández opposed a constitutional change overseen by his predecessor to allow two consecutive presidential terms, he may now benefit from it. He seems to be heading for victory in a presidential election on May 16th, though he may face a run-off ballot next month. His main rival, Miguel Vargas, was a minister in the government that bungled the bank bail-outs.
Like their neighbours in Haiti, poorer Dominicans are suffering from high world prices for food. Mr Fernández has responded with subsidies for wheat, milk, rice and chicken, paid directly to supermarkets. That may be politically effective, but opponents question how much it has cost—and have not received an answer. An agreement with the IMF conveniently expired in January, in time for a pre-election spending binge. In February Mr Fernández opened a new metro in Santo Domingo, the capital, although only two stations are working.
His government has made little progress in fixing the chronically deficient electricity system. More than a third of the power is stolen. The state holding company for electricity generation (known as CDEEE) employs over 2,000 people to do the work of 20 or 30, according to an economist who studies the country. But Mr Fernández has stood by Radamés Segura, CDEEE's unreforming boss. The government guarantees a fixed price for electricity even though much of it comes from oil-fired power stations. Higher oil prices mean that the subsidy to the CDEEE is rising fast, and is likely to exceed $1 billion this year. Most of a separate subsidy that is ostensibly for cooking gas goes in practice to owners of cars that run on natural gas, according to Marino Inchaustegui, a former finance official.
On a campaign swing through La Vega, in the centre of the country, Mr Fernández, wearing a baseball cap as he sits atop a car, is feted like a famous ballplayer on his homecoming. Unmarked police cars use their sirens festively. He is still a cut above his opponents, and nobody has accused him of being personally corrupt. But a prominent writer who was once a supporter complains that the president is becoming like Balaguer. That may be the concomitant of political success, but if true it would nevertheless be a shame, for the man and for the country.
Source: http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11332852
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