Food prices to rocket by 50% as global hunger epidemic causes riots and famines

By David Derbyshire
Last updated at 11:03 PM on 24th January 2011

'Perfect storm' of issues will bring widespread starvation if nothing is done

Food prices to rise by 50 per cent over the next decade

GM crops will be needed to feed the world

Global population to grow to 9billion by 2050

The cost of food will soar by 50 per cent over the next few decades as the world becomes racked by famine, mass migrations and riots, experts have warned.

The increase will be triggered by the exploding world population, rising cost of fuel and increased competition for water, according to a leading Government think-tank.

Spiralling food prices will push hundreds of millions of people into hunger, trigger mass migration and spark civil unrest, the report warned.

Food crisis: A leading Government think tank has warned scaremongering over GM farming is no longer acceptable

And in the UK, the price of basics such as bread, rice and milk will spiral to inflation-busting record prices within the next few decades.

The report, from Foresight, a think-tank set up to predict future crises, called for ‘urgent action’ to prevent food shortages, and said genetically modified crops may be needed to prevent famines.

Even a ‘modest’ rise in food prices could push 100million people into hunger, the report warned.



The world is facing a commodities crisis that could leave millions unable to afford the rising costs of food as population levels soar


Global food prices are already at a record high. Last month the price of cereals, sugar and meat soared on the world’s markets after a series of crop failures caused by bad weather.

Foresight predicted that the world’s population would rise from 6.9billion today to around 9billion by the middle of the century.







Bleak outlook: Sir John cited swelling population levels, energy shortages and climate change will make 'perfect storm' forcing widespread starvation

As the world gets more crowded and more wealthy, demand for food, water and energy will soar.

At the same time, climate change will increase the risk of droughts, floods and crop failures – creating a ‘perfect storm’ of food shortages and above-inflation rises in prices.

Co-author Prof Charles Godfray of Oxford University said: ‘There is a very large risk of a quite substantial increase in prices over the next 30 or 40 years.

‘We are going to have to produce considerably more food. So, inescapably, we are going to have to produce more food from the same amount of land without wrecking the environment.’
The report, written by 40 scientists in 35 countries, calls for a ‘green revolution’ to boost production using traditional, organic and genetically modified crops – designed to be resistant to drought or salt water – and better training for farmers in less well-off countries.

It also called for a massive crackdown on food waste. A typical British household wastes £500 to £700 a year on food that they buy and then throw away.

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Professor Sherman Robinson of Sussex University, one of the report’s authors, said food prices could go up by 50 per cent over the next few decades.

‘The robust conclusion is that the long run decline in food prices is over,’ he said.
Swelling: Sir John said he world's population will reach a total of around 9,000 million by 2050, with around 60% living in cities

Professor John Beddington, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, said the food system was failing.

‘Firstly it is unsustainable, with resources being used faster than they can be naturally replenished,’ he said.

‘Secondly a billion people are going hungry with another billion people suffering from “hidden hunger”, whilst a billion people are over-consuming.'

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