June 04, 2014 05:00 AM
Katherine Gregg
Journal State House Bureau
kgregg@providencejournal.com
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PROVIDENCE, R.I. — With little more than three months left until primary day, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras still has a narrow lead over General Treasurer Gina Raimondo in the Democratic contest for governor, according to the latest Providence Journal/WPRI-12 poll.
If the Sept. 9 Democratic primary were held today, Taveras would lead the field with 33.4 percent of the vote compared with 29.2 percent for Raimondo, 11.5 percent for political newcomer Clay Pell and 1.6 percent for Todd Giroux.
But with one out of every five likely primary voters still undecided, and the candidates just beginning to air their paid TV ads, Joseph Fleming, the veteran pollster who conducted the exclusive survey, says the race is still “wide open.”
In the three-way Democratic primary to succeed Raimondo as general treasurer, former treasurer Frank Caprio — who relinquished the job to run for governor in 2010 — leads the pack. But he leads with only 29.2 percent of the vote, compared with 11.3 percent for investment adviser Seth Magaziner and 8.5 percent for the legislature’s former auditor general, Ernest Almonte. Close to 46 percent of voters were undecided.
The telephone survey of 506 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted by Fleming & Associates May 27-30.
Timothy C. Barmann/The Providence Journal
The majority of those surveyed said they were not sure who they would vote for in the race for General Treasurer. Click image to see all poll results.
The potential margin for error is 4.38 percent, which means the numbers could be off by that much in either direction and Taveras and Raimondo could still be in a statistical tie. Raimondo had a financial edge with 21/2 times more campaign money than Taveras at last report.
With one exception, there have been no dramatic shifts in the governor’s race since the last Fleming poll in February. As the number of undecided voters shrank, Taveras and Raimondo gained potential voters.
But Pell’s support dwindled by 3.2 percentage points.
A newcomer to Rhode Island electoral politics, Pell, 32, is the grandson of the late U.S. Sen. Claiborne Pell. While his revered last name rings bells among voters, and he has won the enthusiastic support of the teacher-union leaders who head the National Education Association of Rhode Island, his campaign has yet to catch on, the poll results show.
The other shifts have been more subtle. Taveras continues to lead Raimondo among men, 34.3 percent to 27.9 percent, and just slightly among women. But within that critical voting bloc, she has narrowed the gap. Her support among voters over age 60 is also up.
Among registered Democrats, Taveras has a healthy 12-point lead over Raimondo (37.7 percent to 25.3 percent), but she has picked up strength among unaffiliated voters, and now leads Taveras by 8 points (36.2 percent to 28.1 percent) within that important swing group eligible to vote in either primary.
Fleming said the outcome could depend, in part, on turnout and the numbers of registered Democrats who turn out versus independents. (His Democratic primary sample was dominated roughly 60-40 by Democrats.)
Timothy C. Barmann/The Providence Journal
By far, the single most important issue for voters is the economy/jobs, according to the poll. Click the image to see all poll results.
The poll went a layer deeper, however, to strength of support.
As it stands, Fleming found, 40.7 percent of the voters who support a candidate said there is a “good chance” they might change their minds, 15.9 percent said they were unlikely to change their minds, and 37.9 percent said they were definitely for their candidate.
But a larger percentage of Raimondo’s supporters said they were committed to voting for her — and unlikely to change their minds — than was so among likely Taveras voters. On the commitment scale, a total 44.6 percent of Raimondo’s supporters said they were definitely for her, compared with 33.1 percent for the mayor.
Statewide, a majority of potential primary voters think highly of both of them. She is viewed “favorably” by 54.2 percent, and he by 66.6 percent.
As might be expected of the architect of the 2011 pension overhaul that Rhode Island’s public employee unions are challenging in court, Raimondo is least popular among union members. The poll found nearly 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, 34 percent favorable. (Pell’s “favorable” rating among union members was only slightly higher — at 38 percent — despite NEARI’s support.)
By way of contrast, 65 percent of those who identified themselves as union members said they had a favorable opinion of Taveras, only 24 percent unfavorable.
But unions are not a monolith in Rhode Island, and Raimondo has scored endorsements from eight construction trade unions. And most of the big public employee unions have yet to bestow their endorsements.
Pell, who served on President Obama’s national security team as a Coast Guard lieutenant, and then did a brief stint as a deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Education, is viewed favorably by 34.6 percent of potential primary voters.
But a third of those polled had no opinion of him, and the number who view him unfavorably (32.4 percent) has gone up by 11 percentage points since February.
“The bad news before was: ‘They don’t know me.’ The bad news now is ‘they know me better, but the ones that do know me better aren’t liking me as much,’” Fleming said of Pell’s numbers. His theory: The other candidates were out and about talking about jobs and the economy, while Pell was fielding questions about his stolen Prius.
And while Pell has lost ground, Fleming says: “It is clear that Clay Pell is still not that well known among Democratic primary voters.”
Eric Hyers, Raimondo’s campaign manager, had this to say about the results:
“It’s encouraging to see the support for Gina’s campaign from all over the state. Rhode Island is facing big problems right now and this election is critically important. Gina has proven she has the courage and ability to deliver solutions and put people back to work. We can’t have more of the same.”
Pell’s campaign manager, Devin Driscoll, said: “Unlike others in the race, Clay isn’t a well-known politician. … As we begin our media and field programs and Rhode Island voters hear Clay’s story, learn about his plan, and sense his passionate commitment to standing with working Rhode Islanders, we’re confident in our ability to win in September.”
Noting the number of voters who haven’t yet made up their minds or indicated they might change, Driscoll said: “This race is anything but a sure thing.”
Taveras described the poll as affirmation of the “tough choices” made on his watch “to save our city.”
“From Westerly to Woonsocket, Rhode Islanders share my view that we need a governor who will stand up for working families. … I’m excited by the support we are seeing and believe that by working together we can build a Rhode Island that gives everyone an opportunity at a better life,” he said.
Evan England, campaign manager for general treasurer candidate Seth Magaziner, commented on the poll results that showed Magaziner trailing Frank Caprio, 29.2 percent to 11.3 percent, with former auditor general Almonte at 8.5 percent.
England said the nearly 46 percent of respondents who were undecided "confirms that the race is wide open, and that voters are looking for new voices and are not ready to put their trust in two statehouse insiders who have spent a combined 35 years at the State House."
(This story was published at 5 a.m. and was revised at 1:53 p.m.)
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