Showing posts with label bail-out. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bail-out. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

5 men arrested near a US-run air base are bailed as UK police probe whether there’s a link to Iran



United States Airforce B1 bombers are seen at RAF Fairford, a US Airbase, after an incident in Fairford, England, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant) License this photo
A B1 USAF bomber on the tarmac at RAF Fairford in Fairford, England, Monday, Sept. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)


BY ALASTAIR GRANT AND JILL LAWLESS

Updated 9:46 PM EDT, September 28, 2026
Leer en español

FAIRFORD, England (AP) — Five young British men arrested on explosives and terror charges near a U.S.-operated air force base in England were released on bail Monday, and counterterror detectives said they were investigating “multiple lines of inquiry,” including whether there is a link to Iran.

The men were detained early Sunday after three vans were spotted in the countryside near RAF Fairford, a U.K.-owned base that has been used by American bombers during decades of conflicts in the Middle East, including this year’s war with Iran.

Investigators haven’t concluded whether the incident was state-backed. They are investigating a possible link to Iran, Russia or non-state militant groups. RAF Fairford has also been the focus of protests by anti-war campaigners.

The five suspects, who haven’t been named, were initially held over suspected explosives offenses and later also arrested on suspicion of preparing an act of terrorism. Police said the men are all British nationals from London and in their 20s.

Britain’s national news agency, PA, reported without citing sources that police had not found viable explosives. Announcing that the suspects had been bailed, the head of U.K. Counter Terrorism Policing, Laurence Taylor, said that the suspects face stringent conditions and “absolutely remain under investigation.”

Taylor said lines of inquiry include that the suspected offenses were committed by “proxies or individuals, either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Warren Buffett Interviews Henry Paulson on the Collapse of the Global Financial System (2010)





The Film Archives

Published on Jul 23, 2013


Paulson, acting as U.S. Treasury Secretary, caused outcries from both the Republican and Democratic Parties as well as the general populace as he tried to get the situation under control.

Through unprecedented intervention by the U.S. Treasury, Paulson led government efforts which he said were aimed at avoiding a severe economic slowdown. After the Dow Jones dropped 30% and turmoil ensued in the global markets, Paulson pushed through legislation authorizing the Treasury to use $700 billion to stabilize the financial system. Working with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, he influenced the decision to create a credit facility (bridge loan and warrants) of US$85 billion to American International Group so it would avoid filing bankruptcy, after having been told that AIG held teacher pension plans, 401k plans, $1.5 trillion in life insurance plans for Americans, and the French Finance Minister called to let Paulson know that AIG held the interests of many Eurozone countries.

On September 19, 2008, Paulson called for the U.S. government to use hundreds of billions of Treasury dollars to help financial firms clean up nonperforming mortgages threatening the liquidity of those firms. Because of his leadership and public appearances on this issue, the press labeled these measures the "Paulson financial rescue plan" or simply the Paulson Plan.

With the passage of H.R. 1424, Paulson became the manager of the United States Emergency Economic Stabilization fund.

As Treasury Secretary, he also sat on the newly established Financial Stability Oversight Board that oversaw the Troubled Assets Relief Program.

Paulson agreed with Bernanke that the only way to unlock the frozen capital markets was to provide direct injections into financial institutions so investors would have confidence in these institutions. The government would take a non-voting share position, with 5% dividends for the first year on the money lent to the banks and 9% thereafter until the banks stabilized and could repay the government loans. According to the book Too Big To Fail, Paulson, Bernanke, New York Federal Reserve Chairman Timothy Geithner, and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair attended the October 13, 2008 meeting on at which this plan was presented to the CEOs of nine major banks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hank_pau...


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Monday, January 21, 2013

Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis





journeymanpictures

Published on Jul 2, 2012


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With the US raising their debt ceiling, are we in a global bail-out bubble that will eventually burst? This doc offers a fresh insight into the greatest economic crisis of our age: the one still awaiting us.

The financial storm that has rocked the world began brewing in the US when congress pushed the idea of home ownership for all, propping up those who couldn't make the down payments. When it all went wrong the government promised the biggest financial stimulus packages in history and gargantuan bailouts. But what crazed logic is that: propping up debt with more debt? "They're giving alcohol to a drunk: it just sets him up for a bigger hangover."

July 2010


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Thursday, September 13, 2012

Fed Announces New Round of Bond Buying to Spur Growth


WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve opened a new chapter Thursday in its efforts to accelerate the economic recovery, saying that it would expand its holdings of mortgage-backed securities, and potentially undertake other new policies, until unemployment drops sufficiently or inflation rises too fast.


Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press

Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, last month made the case for the bank to act again.

The Fed said that it will add $23 billion of mortgage bonds to its portfolio by the end of September and then announce its plans for October as part of a new process that aims to prioritize the Fed’s economic objectives.

The Fed also said, in a statement following a meeting of its policy-making committee, that it now expects to hold short-term interest rates near zero until at least mid-2015, extending the forecast it made in January by about half a year.

The statement said that the economy had continued to expand “at a moderate pace,” but that the Fed had concluded “growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.”

That has been true for months, perhaps years, but implicit in the statement was the Fed’s conclusion that the situation was no longer acceptable. Eleven members of the committee voted for the action; Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, dissented, as he has at each meeting this year.

The Fed said that its actions “should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.”

The scale of the new effort is significantly smaller than the Fed’s previous rounds of asset purchases. The Fed purchased about $100 billion in securities each month during those campaigns. It said Thursday that it would target a rate of about $40 billion a month during the current campaign, although unlike those earlier efforts, the volume is now subject to adjustment.

The new purchases will mark the first time in more than two years that the Fed has expanded its holdings of mortgage bonds. That decision reflects the Fed’s view that the housing market still needs help, and that lower rates on mortgage loans could provide significant benefits for the broader economy.

Seeking to increase the impact of its new policies, the Fed also said Thursday that “a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.”

The language is intended to make clear that this latest intensification does not solely reflect the Fed’s increased concern about the economy, but also reflects an increased determination to make a more forceful response. It suggests that the Fed is willing to tolerate somewhat higher inflation later to encourage stronger recovery in the coming months, something it once insisted was unthinkable but has gradually come to consider a necessity in order to revive the economy.

The Fed had given unusually clear indications in recent weeks that it was ready to act. An account of its last meeting, published in mid-August, suggested action was imminent unless the economy showed “substantial and sustainable” improvement.

A few weeks later, Mr. Bernanke spoke of his “grave concern” about the high rate of unemployment and said that in his judgment, the likely benefits of additional action outweighed the potential costs. A number of longtime observers of the central bank said they could not recall a Fed chairman using stronger language.

Since then, the economy has shown little evidence of substantial improvement. The government estimated last week that employers added only 96,000 jobs in August, and other economic indicators have been similarly lackluster.

Fed officials focused on two options in response: expanding the scope of its current efforts by purchasing more securities, or extending the duration by promising to maintain those efforts beyond the end of 2014.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/business/economy/fed-announces-new-round-of-bond-buying-to-spur-growth.html?emc=na



Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Report: Federal Reserve lent banks nearly $8 trillion during 2007-2009 crises

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
11/30/2011
Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)


Loan allowed banks to keep paying executives millions of dollars

Throughout the 2007 - 2009 financial crises, major American banks assured the public that everything was fine - while at the same time approaching the Federal Reserve to borrow $7.77 trillion. That mount was many more times higher than the TARP bailout. The loan allowed the banks to continue to pay out exorbitant fees - and many fear yet another crisis is on the way.






The Fed contends that the biggest financial institutions in the country were too big to fail. That phrase has become a bone of contention among lawmakers. They argue that a 'too big to fail' bank is one that's too big to exist.

LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - A report in Bloomberg Markets says that the magnitude of the government's assistance to struggling banks allowed them to grow even bigger and continue paying executives billions in compensation.

A win in court against a group representing the banks and a FOIA request filed by Bloomberg revealed the extent of the central bank's largesse - as well as the $13 billion in profits banks earned from those bailouts.

JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, also known as "the big six," accounted for $4.8 billion of that total, nearly a quarter of their net income during that time.

Saved by the bailout, bankers lobbied against government regulations, a job made easier by the Fed, which never disclosed the details of the rescue to lawmakers even as Congress doled out more money and debated new rules aimed at preventing the next collapse.

The narrative of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 emerges from 29,000 pages of Fed documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and central bank records of more than 21,000 transactions. While Fed officials say that almost all of the loans were repaid and there have been no losses, details suggest taxpayers paid a price beyond dollars as the secret funding helped preserve a broken status quo and enabled the biggest banks to grow even bigger.

Until recently, those trillions were a deeply-buried secret. The highest-ranking Fed officials didn't know about the enormity of the handouts. Then-president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Gary H. Stern "wasn't aware of the magnitude." Unnamed sources say that even top aides to Treasury Department head Henry Paulson were denied information.

The "big six" received a total $160 billion in TARP funds. As much as $460 billion was lent from the Fed, raising the question as to how and why this nearly $8 trillion in loans, guarantees and limits remained under wraps for so long.

According to the reserve, the massive scale of banks' borrowing had to be kept secret to avoid spooking investors. They feared that if the magnitude of the borrowed funds would create a panic, or bank runs that would have had even more devastating consequences on the already battered economy.

The Fed contends that the biggest financial institutions in the country were too big to fail. That phrase has become a bone of contention among lawmakers. They argue that a "too big to fail" bank is one that's too big to exist.

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown sponsored a bill last year that would cap a bank's non-deposit liabilities at 2 percent of gross domestic product, and crack down on workarounds banks currently use to bypass a 1994 law that prohibits any one bank from holding more than 10 percent of all deposits in the country.

Friday, June 03, 2011

Recently-Released Documents Reveal Obama Administration’s Complicity in Deception about Auto Bailout

by Hans Bader on June 2, 2011

in Blog,Features


Obama Administration officials had advance notice that General Motors would run deceptive ads claiming to have paid taxpayers back for its bailout, and did not veto or object to those ads despite the opportunity to do so. Only later did Administration officials distance themselves from those deceptive claims, and they did so only after the falsity of those claims became so obvious to the public that they could no longer be parroted. Treasury Secretary Geithner had parroted those deceptive claims, which then drew criticism from the TARP inspector general, members of Congress, and financial reporters. Geithner publicly repeated GM’s deceptive claims, even though the Treasury Department had weeks in which to review GM’s claims and discover their inaccuracy.

Treasury Department Documents released last week in response to a think-tank’s Freedom of Information Act request make this clear. Those documents illustrate that GM and the Obama Administration coordinated GM’s PR strategy regarding the company’s controversial TV and print ad campaign in 2010, in which the car maker misleadingly claimed to have repaid what it received from taxpayers. In those ads, GM’s then-CEO, Ed Whitacre, claimed GM had already repaid its government bailout loan “in full, with interest, five years ahead of schedule.”

In May 2010, the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) filed a deceptive advertising complaint with the FTC, and GM shortly thereafter stopped running the ads. CEI also filed a Freedom of Information request with Treasury for documents on the ad campaign. Those documents were finally released late last month, after a year of delay – far beyond the 20-day legal deadline for responding to FOIA requests.

CEI General Counsel Sam Kazman laments that “the US Treasury Department aided General Motors in its fraudulent claim that it fully repaid its government loans,” pointing out that “the detailed nature of their cooperation is demonstrated in the documents that the Department has finally produced, 12 long months after our original request. Now, the Treasury Department is re-enacting this smoke-and-mirrors routine on behalf of Chrysler,” Kazman observed.

The documents show GM coordinating PR strategy with the Obama Administration more than three weeks before launching the campaign. The White House received some of those GM materials at least two weeks before the ad campaign began. The Treasury Department delayed in responding to CEI’s FOIA request until after GM and Chrysler’s profits temporarily spiked, leading to the Administration’s current PR campaign touting the alleged “success” of the auto bailout. For example, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote a Washington Post Op-Ed on June 1, 2011 with a similarly-misleading statement that Chrysler had repaid its government loans. On June 3, Obama himself will give a speech in Toledo, Ohio defending the auto bailout.

The communications between the Treasury, the White House, and GM on this PR effort were extensive. Starting on March 30, 2010, Brian Deese from the Executive Office of the President and many Treasury Department officials began exchanging emails related to the announcement. (See pages 55-59, 97-102.) These emails included draft schedules, draft remarks to be given by GM CEO Ed Whitacre, and draft press releases from both GM and the Treasury Department. See pp. 9-14; 18-24; 36-39; 83-96.

The Treasury Department saw the misleading advertisements GM was planning to make in advance, and did not object, despite having ample opportunity to object.

Indeed, Treasury Secretary Geithner issued a statement at the start of GM’s ad campaign, trumpeting its misleading claims, crowing that “GM had repaid in full the $4.7 billion balance it owed under the government’s Trouble Asset Relief Program.” But this so-called “repayment” was just a deceptive accounting trick. GM used government bailout money to make the “repayment.” As the Washington Examiner noted, Geithner was endorsing a “blatant misrepresentation.”

More importantly, this so-called “repayment” was just a drop in the bucket compared to what GM has received from taxpayers. The federal government had yet to recover the lion’s share of the more than $50 billion it loaned the company. Why? Because that $50 billion was mostly “converted into stock held by the Treasury Department” – stock worth far less than the billions the federal government injected into the company.

These claims were deeply misleading, as Senator Charles Grassley and the government’s own TARP Inspector General noted. GM’s statement that “We have repaid our government loans in full, with interest” was misleading,“according to Neil Barofsky, inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program . . . ‘the source of funds for these quality [debt] payments will be other TARP funds currently held in an escrow account.” Senator Grassley noted that “‘TARP loans were not repaid from money GM is earning selling cars, as GM and the administration have claimed in their speeches, press releases and television commercials.’”

Eventually, financial reporters for newspapers like the New York Times and San Francisco Chronicle ridiculed these false claims. Gretchen Morgenson of the Times pointed out that “the company simply used other funds held by the Treasury to pay off its original loan.” Kathleen Pender of the Chronicle noted that “GM repaid its government loan with other government money.” The Washington Times observed that “General Motors Lost $3.4 billion” just before running the ad; “GM specifically used funds it received from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to pay off the government loan.”

Only after the falsity of GM’s claims became obvious to the general public did some Administration officials distance themselves from them. An April 29 email shows Treasury trying to “prepare a response today” to escalating criticism. (See pg. 11) On May 10, 2010, former auto czar Steve Rattner publicly admitted that “GM may have slightly elasticized the reality of things” in its claims of repayment. Treasury officials privately began to look for ways to respond to this reality. Rattner’s successor, Ron Bloom, wanted “a couple bullet points… for response if this comes up.” (See pp. 61-62.)

The Treasury Department’s role in facilitating GM’s deception may be far greater than the documents reveal, because the Treasury Department withheld some of the documents covered by the FOIA request, including portions of documents shedding light on White House involvement. For example, a blacked out item in the Treasury document release is a March 30 email from Brian Deese in the Executive Office regarding GM’s upcoming campaign. All of its content was blacked out except for the opening words, “Hi guys.” (See pages 58-59)

The Treasury Department waited until after the automakers’ finances had temporarily improved to produce the documents. GM’s finances have been temporarily propped up by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami that ravaged Toyota, and by earlier erroneous claims that Toyota’s automobiles were unsafe. Its profits have also been artificially puffed up by massive deferral of billions of dollars in growing UAW pension obligations. Moreover, as Conn Carroll notes in the Washington Examiner, Chrysler recent auto bailout pay back is in large measure fake.

As journalist Mickey Kaus has noted, “Sales and prices are up recently in part only because competing Japanese car suppliers have been crippled by the earthquake and tsunami. GM’s stock fell today and is still below the initial IPO price.”

Before that, GM’s finances were temporarily buoyed by bad PR regarding Toyota’s alleged safety defects in its cars, which turned out to be largely bogus. (The Toyota crashes turned out to have been caused by driver error, not manufacturing defects).

These things temporarily drove buyers away from Toyota to GM and Chrysler, artificially pumping up their profits. But massive earthquakes and Tsunamis like the one that hit Japan occur there only once or twice a century, and can’t keep GM going in the long run: “Car sales sputtered in May, slumping to levels that were much lower than expected as higher vehicle prices led consumers to put off purchases in the face of a weakening economy. Tightening supplies of vehicles after the Japan earthquake emboldened many companies . . . to raise car and truck prices, a strategy that analysts and investors said had backfired. U.S. automakers” like GM “reported sales on Wednesday that fell short of expectations as the industry experienced its lowest sales rate in eight months.”

GM stock is worth money partly because its government ownership stake allows it to claim up to $45 billion in tax savings that it would otherwise have had to forfeit as a result of its bankruptcy. GM is also receiving lots of taxpayer subsidies for its Chevy Volt, despite revelations that it lied about that car, which it was trumpeting in a “publicity stunt” to curry favor with politicians crusading against global warming.

GM still owes taxpayers at least $29.4 billion, and its finance arm, GMAC, owes taxpayers billions more. In a sense, taxpayers lost money on the sale of some of the government’s shares in General Motors in a 2010 IPO that was touted by government officials. (They got at least $9 billion less for the stock that was sold in the IPO than taxpayers originally paid for that stock.)

Even Kaus, who grudgingly supported the bailouts, thinks that people who bought GM stock were “suckers,” since GM faces hidden perils, still has too much red tape and inefficiency, lacks “effective internal controls,” and is the beneficiary of accounting gimmicks and unrealistic assumptions about its future market share.

In addition to the $50 billion, GM received billions in additional handouts through programs like the extraordinarily wasteful Cash for Clunkers (which cost taxpayers and used-car and car-parts businesses billions), and $17 billion given to its finance arm, GMAC.

GM might never have needed a bailout if it had just received relief from harmful regulations such as CAFE rules (which wipe out at least 50,000 jobs). It might have survived despite GM’s self-inflicted wounds from poor management, excessive wages and gold-plated union benefits (worth up to $70 an hour), and rigid union work rules.

Obama’s car czar left most of those wasteful work rules and excessive benefits intact, and gave the UAW much of General Motors’ stock, even though the UAW helped bankrupt the company, and the company has value today because the taxpayers pumped billions into the company (and engineered the wiping out of General Motors’ bondholders, some of whom were non-union employees who had invested their life savings in the company).

Veteran political commentator Michael Barone called the Obama administration’s treatment of Chrysler and GM bondholders “gangster government.” GMU law professor Todd Zywicki called it an attack on “the rule of law.” Such treatment may well discourage investors from investing in industrial companies in the future, reducing job creation and investment in the American economy.

Source
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Thursday, December 02, 2010

New Data Show Extent of Fed’s Free Money Programs



Posted on Dec 1, 2010

Wikimedia Commons / Robert Mihaly (CC-BY-SA)
Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke as king of Central Banking.


Thanks to Bernie Sanders and the new financial regulation passed by Congress, we’re learning more about the Federal Reserve’s $3.3 trillion bailout of Wall Street in 2008. It turns out the Fed lent money not just to the likes of Goldman Sachs (which desperately needed it) but also to companies such as Verizon and Toyota, as well as to foreign financial institutions.

Essentially the Fed lent money at almost zero interest to, well, just about everybody.

Bernie Sanders, take it away… —PZS

The Washington Post:

But the extent of the lending to major banks—and the generous terms of some of those deals—heighten the political peril for a central bank that is already under the gun for a wide range of actions, including a recent decision to try to stimulate the economy by buying $600 billion of U.S. bonds.

“The American people are finally learning the incredible and jaw-dropping details of the Fed’s multitrillion-dollar bailout of Wall Street and corporate America,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a longtime Fed critic whose provision in the Wall Street regulatory overhaul required the new disclosures. “Perhaps most surprising is the huge sum that went to bail out foreign private banks and corporations. As a result of this disclosure, other members of Congress and I will be taking a very extensive look at all aspects of how the Federal Reserve functions.”

Related

By eir, December 2 at 1:40 pm Link to this comment
Eliot Spitzer: “The Federal Reserve Is A Ponzi Scheme” (Inside The Fed’s Secret Pile Of Trash With Ratigan, Spitzer & Toure)
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010

What Cooked the World's Economy?


It wasn't your overdue mortgage.

By James Lieber Wednesday, Jan 28 2009



Details
James Lieber is a lawyer whose books on business and politics include Friendly Takeover (Penguin) and Rats in the Grain (Basic Books). This is his fifth article for the Voice.




It's 2009. You're laid off, furloughed, foreclosed on, or you know someone who is. You wonder where you'll fit into the grim new semi-socialistic post-post-industrial economy colloquially known as "this mess."

You're astonished and possibly ashamed that mutant financial instruments dreamed up in your great country have spawned worldwide misery. You can't comprehend, much less trim, the amount of bailout money parachuting into the laps of incompetents, hoarders, and miscreants. It's been a tough century so far: 9/11, Iraq, and now this. At least we have a bright new president. He'll give you a job painting a bridge. You may need it to keep body and soul together.

The basic story line so far is that we are all to blame, including homeowners who bit off more than they could chew, lenders who wrote absurd adjustable-rate mortgages, and greedy investment bankers.

Credit derivatives also figure heavily in the plot. Apologists say that these became so complicated that even Wall Street couldn't understand them and that they created "an unacceptable level of risk." Then these blowhards tell us that the bailout will pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the credit arteries and save the patient, which is the world's financial system. It will take time-maybe a year or so-but if everyone hangs in there, we'll be all right. No structural damage has been done, and all's well that ends well.

Sorry, but that's drivel. In fact, what we are living through is the worst financial scandal in history. It dwarfs 1929, Ponzi's scheme, Teapot Dome, the South Sea Bubble, tulip bulbs, you name it. Bernie Madoff? He's peanuts.

Credit derivatives-those securities that few have ever seen-are one reason why this crisis is so different from 1929.

Derivatives weren't initially evil. They began as insurance policies on large loans. A bank that wished to lend money to a big, but shaky, venture, like what Ford or GM have become, could hedge its bet by buying a credit derivative to cover losses if the debtor defaulted. Derivatives weren't cheap, but in the era of globalization and declining American competitiveness, they were prudent. Interestingly, the company that put the basic hardware and software together for pricing and clearing derivatives was Bloomberg. It was quite expensive for a financial institution-say, a bank-to get a Bloomberg machine and receive the specialized training required to certify analysts who would figure out the terms of the insurance. These Bloomberg terminals, originally called Market Masters, were first installed at Merrill Lynch in the late 1980s.

Subsequently, thousands of units have been placed in trading and financial institutions; they became the cornerstone of Michael Bloomberg's wealth, marrying his skills as a securities trader and an electrical engineer.

It's an open question when or if he or his company knew how they would be misused over time to devastate the world's economy.


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Fast-forward to the early years of the Clinton administration. After an initial surge of regulatory behavior in favor of fair markets, especially in antitrust, that sort of behavior was abandoned, and free markets triumphed. The result was a morass of white-collar sociopathy at Archer Daniels Midland, Enron, and WorldCom, and in a host of markets ranging from oil to vitamins.

This was the beginning of the heyday of hedge funds. Unregulated investment houses were originally based on the questionable but legal practice of short-selling-selling a financial instrument you don't own in hopes of buying it back later at a lower price. That way, you hedge your bets: You cover your investment in a company in case a company's stock price falls.

But hedge funds later diversified their practices beyond that easy definition. These funds acquired a good deal of popular mystique. They made scads of money. Their notoriously high entry fees-up to 5 percent of the investment, plus as much as 36 percent of profits-served as barriers to all but the richest investors, who gave fortunes to the funds to play with. The funds boasted of having genius analysts and fabulous proprietary algorithms. Few could discern what they really did, but the returns, for those who could buy in, often seemed magical.

But it wasn't magic. It amounted to the return of the age-old scam called "bucket shops." Also sometimes known as "boiler rooms," bucket shops emerged after the Civil War. Usually, they were storefronts where people came to bet on stocks without owning them. Unlike their customers, the shops actually owned blocks of stock. If customers were betting that a stock would go up, the shops would sell it and the price would plunge; if bettors were bearish, the shops would buy. In this way, they cleaned out their customers. Frenetic bucket-shop activity caused the Panic of 1907. By 1909, New York had banned bucket shops, and every other state soon followed.

In the mid-'90s, though, the credit-derivatives industry was hitting its stride and argued vehemently for exclusion from all state and federal anti-bucket-shop regulations. On the side of the industry were Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and his deputy, Lawrence Summers. Holding the fort for the regulators was Brooksley Born, who headed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The three financial titans ridiculed the virtually unknown and cloutless, but brilliant and prophetic Born, who warned that unrestricted derivatives trading would "threaten our regulated markets, or indeed, our economy, without any federal agency knowing about it." Warren Buffett also weighed in against deregulation.


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Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Orszag Leaves, Red Ink Remains




Now that the Obama Administration is going to see its sexiness quotient go down, it is time to consider just what Peter Orszag’s legacy to the nation is. Unfortunately, in considering that legacy, we see that the bad outweighs the good.

As Jonathan Weisman notes, the most obvious Orszagian legacy is a debt of $1 trillion. That’s right; trillion. With a T. The natural consequences of that debt will be higher interest rates, a decreased capacity to borrow when we really need to borrow, and a coming era of austerity that will lead to economic stagnation, and even recession, as we grapple with the debt that Orszag and the Obama Administration bequeathed to us. The parlous fiscal situation in which we find ourselves could have been avoided if only we chose not to implement a stimulus that isn’t working, and a health care plan we plainly cannot afford. To be sure, the Bush Administration’s fiscal policy did not help matters, but the current Administration will outspend its predecessor–and put the country even more deeply in the hole as a consequence–by a significant amount. It’s impossible for the current Administration to blame its predecessor for the budgetary morass; indeed, blame cannot even be transferred with a straight face anymore.

Just as lamentable is Orszag’s record as a cheerleader for health care reform. While he helped successfully drive the effort to change the health care system, he did so at the expense of actually instituting good policy. As James Pethokoukis writes, the drive for health care reform was fueled by massive amounts of intellectual dishonesty which we will all pay for:
. . . Orszag made the case to the president that reducing healthcare costs was an important element to slashing the long-term budget deficit. More importantly, he persuaded Obama the U.S. healthcare system was so inefficient, overall spending could be restrained while also providing near-universal health insurance coverage. In effect, “bending the curve” was a free lunch. Or at least close enough for government work.

It was an audacious claim, mostly based on a single controversial academic study. Republicans never bought into the theory, and neither did Orszag’s successor at the Congressional Budget Office, Uncle Sam’s fiscal scorekeeper. In the end, Obama was forced to cut future Medicare spending and raise taxes to make the numbers balance out — at least on paper. Few Washington observers think those cuts will happen, meaning that the budget deficit could explode if Orszag’s novel theories don’t pan out. And even if the cuts occur, many budget hawks were counting on them to make Medicare sustainable over the long-term, not create a new entitlement.

Speaking of intellectual dishonesty, in what parallel universe is it acceptable to introduce a budget that neglects to mention a whopping $3.6 trillion in liabilities? Again, this would be trillion. With a T. Any business that pulled such a stunt would have found itself answering to people called “prosecutors,” and “class action attorneys.” One doesn’t wish Peter Orszag legal trouble–despite the manifest policy failings he is responsible for, he certainly seems like a nice guy–but it is worth noting that after leaving the Office of Management and Budget, Orszag will land some cushy, remunerative position in a think tank, or a private sector company, or both. Is this the price one pays for perpetrating budgetary fraud and chicanery upon the United States of America?

Orszag’s announced departure as Budget Director has set off speculation as to who his successor will be. Whoever ends up taking the job will need a strong sense of duty and patriotism, a strong stomach, and just the right amount of insanity to want to try to whittle around the gigantic budget deficit, and the truly terrifying national debt left to use by Orszag, and by the President he has served. About the only thing that we can hope for is that whatever sexiness quotient the next Budget Director lacks, he or she will make up for with a commitment to responsible policymaking. After having had to put up with Peter Orszag’s bad calls on the budget, and on health care reform, we are due for some competence at the Office of Management and Budget.
Is it possible that we will get competence? Possibly; Orszag has set the bar so low, that his successor will have to work extra hard to fail to clear it. Of course, the setting of that low bar is the source of many of our problems, now isn’t it?
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Thursday, June 17, 2010

Spain to Use $30 Billion "Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring"


Thursday, June 17, 2010


Spain to Use $30 Billion "Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring"; Spain's Borrowing Costs Rise; Is an EU or IMF Bailout of Spain in the Works?


Inquiring minds are wondering if an EU or IMF orchestrated bailout of Spain is in the works. Spain denies it, but rumors of secret talks are running rampant.

Please consider Spanish debt wilts amid €250bn rescue plan confusion


European debt markets remain under high stress on persistent reports that Spain is in secret talks with EU officials and the International Monetary Fund for a support package of up to €250bn (£208bn), the largest rescue in history.

The spreads on 10-year Spanish bonds jumped to a post-EMU high of 224 basis points above German Bunds as traders brace for a crucial auction by Madrid on Thursday. The relentless rise in bond yields replicates the pattern seen in Greece at the onset of crisis. Spain must raise €25bn of debt in a cluster of auctions in July.

"We're in a dangerous and stressful situation," said Gary Jenkins, a credit expert at Evolution Securities. "Spain is a big enough borrower to wipe out the EU's rescue fund."

Elena Salgado, Spain's finance minister, reacted angrily to a report in the Spanish daily El Economista claiming that the support plans are well advanced.

"It has been denied by the Spanish government, by the European Commission, and by the IMF. How much more can we deny it?" she said.

The story refuses to die, however. Three German newspapers have run similar stories over recent days, citing German sources. The markets are convinced that some form of contingency planning is underway.

"In our view there is absolutely no doubt that a backstop facility for Spain will be put in place should stress in the system remain," said Silvio Peruzzo, an economist at RBS,
Concern Over Spanish Bank Stress Tests

Bloomberg reports Yen Gains, Euro Weakens on Concern Europe Crisis to Slow Growth

The euro weakened against most major currencies after Spain’s central bank said yesterday it planned to publish the results of stress tests carried out on lenders to counter speculation it needs international aid. Last month the EU announced a 750 billion-euro ($920 billion) rescue mechanism to stem contagion from Greece as the risk premiums on Spanish and Portuguese bonds surged.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick said yesterday there are “challenges” ahead in Europe even if the rescue packages put together by authorities have “bought time.”

EU leaders will meet in Brussels to discuss the region’s economies and the so-called stability and growth pact. The Bank of Spain plans to make the findings of its stress tests public to provide markets with full knowledge of the state of the country’s banking system, Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez, the central bank governor, said yesterday in a speech.

“Investors continue to express concerns over Spain, especially whether the government can commit enough funds to ring-fence the banking sector,” Brian Kim, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note yesterday. The euro is likely to weaken to $1.15 in three months, he said.
RBS Sticks With IMF Bailout Idea After Spain's Denial

RBS Analysts Say Spain Rescue Credit Line From IMF Still Likely.
Some form of credit support for Spain from the European Commission and International Monetary Fund is still likely, even after a report of such a plan was denied yesterday, Royal Bank of Scotland analysts said.

Such a plan may become necessary as the government faces around 25 billion euros in bond redemptions in the next month, and those may not be easily refinanced given how bond yields have risen, they wrote. RBS said Spain could receive an IMF Flexible Credit Line similar to those received by Poland, Mexico and Colombia.
Spain Borrowing Costs Rise at Auction of 10-Year Debt

Tick, Tock. Bloomberg reports Spain Borrowing Costs Rise at Auction of 10-Year Debt
Spain paid an average yield of 4.864 percent at an auction of 10-year debt, compared with a rate of 4.045 percent at an auction on May 20, the Bank of Spain said today.
That is a rather hefty increase in rates. Spain will be in trouble if that continues for several months.

Spain to Use $30 Billion "Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring"

Inquiring minds are reading Spain may use 30 billion euros for bank restructuring

Spain may use as much as 30 billion euros of its Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) to cover the financing needs of its banks, the Economy Minister Elena Salgado said on Thursday. The FROB, created to help the banking sector, can issue up to 99 billion euros to aid credit institutions.

"(The fund) will be more than sufficient for all of banks' needs," Salgado said during a television interview.

"It's going to be much less than (90 billion euros). These figures have to come from the Bank of Spain, but I would estimate, with total certainty, that it will be less than one third."
$30 billion may buy some time for a while.

However, odds are very good that Spain will need a bailout from the EU, IMF, or both. Then what?

Eventually Greece and Spain are likely to default and Italy is waiting in the wings.

Good luck with that.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares soar


But a banking analyst is puzzled by the stock market's reaction after the government in effect gave the mortgage giants blank checks of federal support.

December 29, 2009By Tom Petruno

Speculators poured into shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday, the first day of trading after the Obama administration in effect gave the companies blank checks of federal support.

But exactly how the government's move makes a payoff for Fannie and Freddie shareholders more likely in the long run, rather than less likely, ought to puzzle most investors.

The stock market's reaction mystifies veteran banking analyst Bert Ely at Ely & Co. in Alexandria, Va.

"They're not going to get anything back," he says of any investors who have long-term faith in the mortgage giants' shares.

Of course, "long term" for most people trading these two stocks probably means an hour or so.

Freddie's shares jumped 34 cents, or 27%, to $1.60; Fannie's stock gained 22 cents, or 21%, to $1.27. Trading volume for both was the highest since late October.

The day's action was reminiscent of the speculative frenzy that erupted late last summer, when shares of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae nearly quadrupled from the end of July to Aug. 28. During that four-week period, Freddie's stock rocketed from 62 cents to $2.40, while Fannie's shares soared from 58 cents to $2.04.

The Treasury on Christmas Eve announced that it was removing previously set limits on federal financial aid for the companies, which were seized by the U.S. in September 2008 amid mounting mortgage losses. The restrictions had capped aid at $200 billion for each firm. Freddie so far has tapped $51 billion and Fannie has used $60 billion.

The administration said it was removing the caps to "leave no uncertainty about the Treasury's commitment to support these firms as they continue to play a vital role in the housing market during this current crisis."

But whatever additional federal money flows into Fannie and Freddie would almost certainly come at the expense of shareholders' remaining stake. The government now owns 80% of both firms.

The administration is supposed to announce its long-term strategy for Fannie and Freddie in February. The companies' losses could continue to balloon if, as some analysts expect, the White House were to seek to use the companies to support new mortgage-forgiveness programs that would help struggling homeowners.

Ely points out another reason to doubt that the stocks have any real value: The pay packages the Treasury announced Thursday for the companies' chief executives consisted exclusively of cash compensation; no shares were offered.

In contrast, the Treasury has been requiring top executives of other large-scale recipients of federal aid to accept pay packages made up largely of stock and relatively little cash.

tom.petruno@latimes.com


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P.S. Bolds and Highlights added.ad
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Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Fed quietly posts record $46.1-billion profit in 2009


By Jim Puzzanghera

January 13, 2010

Reporting from Washington - The Federal Reserve reported a side benefit to its massive intervention into the financial system -- a record profit of $46.1 billion last year on the central bank's investments.

But experts said that gain, which will be paid to the U.S. Treasury, could be offset by losses in the future when the central bank starts selling the Treasury bonds and other assets it has purchased in unprecedented amounts to try to stabilize the economy.

For that reason, the Fed did not make a big deal out of the news Tuesday, announcing it in a short news release, said Vincent R. Reinhart, former director of the Fed's Division of Monetary Affairs.

"Any other entity that had record profits would have hired a band or had a parade," said Reinhart, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank. "Why would the Fed downplay that? They don't want you to focus on the current profits because when it comes to tightening policy they'll probably get losses on that same portfolio."

Federal Reserve officials said Tuesday that they believed all the investments they made were safe, including loans to help facilitate the sale of investment bank Bear Stearns and rescue insurer American International Group Inc. But that does not preclude some losses.

The Fed's balance sheet, the value of all of its holdings, has more than doubled to $2.2 trillion as it has tried to keep the financial system afloat since the financial crisis began in 2008. Its huge investments in securities led to much of its increased profit, said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief financial economist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

"It's the interest on over a trillion dollars of securities," he said of the Fed's profit. "They have an enormous balance sheet, and those assets are contributing more to their earnings, putting more money in the kitty for the Treasury and helping to lower the budget deficit."

But he noted the profit was relatively small given the size of the balance sheet and the $1.4-trillion federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30. "It may be a drop in the bucket . . . but every little bit helps," Rupkey said.

The Fed's profit last year was $14.4 billion more than what it paid into the Treasury for 2008 and more than it has ever earned since it began operations in 1914. The previous record was $34.6 billion in 2007.

But Federal Reserve officials stressed that the goal of the central bank is stabilizing monetary policy, not earning profit. The Fed is funded by its earnings, and profit is turned over to the federal government.

"The significant increase in earnings on securities was primarily due to increased securities holdings as a result of the Federal Reserve's response to the severe economic downturn," the central bank said. As of Dec. 30, the Fed held $1.85 trillion in Treasury bonds and other securities, up from $496 billion at the end of 2008.

As the Fed stepped up its efforts to prop up the faltering financial system, it bought large amounts of securities from the U.S. Treasury and other entities, including mortgage-backed securities held by government-sponsored home loan financing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the federal government during the crisis.

Those purchases have helped push down mortgage rates. Mortgage-backed securities pay a higher rate than Treasury securities, helping account for the increased profit.

"They lend at a higher rate than they borrow. The rate they borrow at is approximately zero" percent, Reinhart said. "Central banking is a really good business, and if you have a big balance sheet you can make a lot."

As part of the $46.1-billion profit, the Fed earned $2.6 billion on currency swap arrangements with central banks in 14 countries and other investments in foreign currency. The Fed also earned $700 million from fees for services it provided to banks.

But the Fed's profit probably will decline in the future, Reinhart said, although the central bank is unlikely to post annual losses.

"The Federal Reserve is not the new Goldman Sachs. They're not a profit center for the government," he said. "Their profits are small in the scheme of things, and they should be properly viewed as offset by potential future losses."

jim.puzzanghera@

latimes.com

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Thursday, December 03, 2009

Fight Over Finance Oversight, and Bernanke, Gets Hotter


Joseph Schuman

Fight Over Finance Oversight, and Bernanke, Gets Hotter
Posted:
12/2/09


(Dec. 2) -- The fight to tame U.S. oversight of banks and Wall Street heated up Wednesday and now looks likely to dominate this week's hearing on the renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The House Financial Services Committee voted 31-27 along party lines to send an overhaul of financial regulation to the floor of the House for debate next week, a victory for chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., but not a complete one. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus boycotted the vote, saying they want greater financial help for their communities amid all the fiscal stimulus measures of the past year. Those votes -- the caucus includes 41 representatives -- could be pivotal when the bill is put to a vote by the full House.

Perhaps the most controversial part of the bill, dubbed the Financial Stability Act, would increase congressional oversight of the Fed by broadening the Government Accountability Office's authority over the Fed's financial operations. Critics of the bill argue that any increase in political supervision of the Fed would weaken the U.S. central bank's credibility. Proponents say that credibility was already undercut more by the failure of the Fed and other agencies to foresee and prevent the subprime-mortgage meltdown that cascaded into a global recession.

Bernanke will likely be asked to address the matter himself on Thursday before the Senate banking committee, which is considering his nomination by President Obama to a second term as the country's chief financial steward. That hearing and any discussion of new restraints on the Fed were already expected to be animated, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., made sure of that Wednesday evening.

Sanders placed a hold on the Bernanke nomination, faulting both the Fed chairman's role in the financial crisis and his chairmanship of the President's Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. "The American people overwhelmingly voted last year for a change in our national priorities to put the interests of ordinary people ahead of the greed of Wall Street and the wealthy few," Sanders said. "What the American people did not bargain for was another four years for one of the key architects of the Bush economy.

" The hold will likely delay the renomination, but Bernanke appears to have enough support from Republicans and Democrats in the Senate to keep his job. The tenor of Thursday's hearing could indicate which way it will go.

A host of financial-regulation reform bills under consideration in Congress have already been subjected to repeated rounds of disparagement and lobbying from financial firms, which object to a tighter leash but have been restrained in their public criticism by the economic pain and popular anger of the past year. On the other side of the fight, consumer advocates have vociferously called for greater regulation, and the Obama administration has made passage of a bill one of its top economic priorities.

But the shape of a final measure -- for both the House legislation and a similar measure in the Senate -- is far from clear and might not take form before next year.

The thrust of the House bill aims to strengthen oversight across the spectrum of the finance industries by creating a council, headed by the Treasury, that will seek to identify and address systemic risks in the marketplace that could lead to another financial crisis. It would consolidate authority of the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators to deal with crises, create new safeguards for insurance companies like AIG and other nonbanks -- so that none becomes "too big to fail" -- and force lenders to assume a greater portion of the risk in their loans rather than pass along all the risk to investors. The bill would also place limits on any future government bailouts.

The bill is likely to undergo changes by the full House, and if it passes there perhaps wholesale revision once the Senate finishes work on its version. Work on financial reform has stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn., is trying to get Republicans to contribute to and support his proposal.



Source:

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

We are in charge now, Sarkozy tells the City

From The Times December 2, 2009

We are in charge now, Sarkozy tells the City

Francis Elliott, Suzy Jagger, Martin Waller and David Charter






(Ian Langsdon/EPA) to not show image description -->
Nicolas Sarkozy






Alistair Darling has delivered a blunt warning to the EU’s new French finance chief against meddling with the City of London.

As Nicolas Sarkozy gloated over impending curbs on the City, the Chancellor said that such moves would drive financial services out of Europe.

The French President’s glee at the appointment of Michel Barnier as Commissioner for the Single Market took on an edge of menace yesterday when he said that unfettered City practices must end.

“Do you know what it means for me to see for the first time in 50 years a French European commissioner in charge of the internal market, including financial services, including the City [of London]?" he said yesterday.


Related Links
A strong City is not just good for Britain
President Sarkozy attacks City of London
Diplomatic Disservice



"I want the world to see the victory of the European model, which has nothing to do with the excesses of financial capitalism," he said.

His implicit threat was just what Downing Street had feared when Mr Barnier, formerly an agriculture minister, was given the portfolio last week.

Mr Darling, writing in The Times today, says that it would be a “recipe for confusion” if firms were supervised by the EU as well as national watchdogs and that Britain would not accept new laws that could lead to taxpayers picking up the bill for bailouts ordered by Brussels.

He rejects claims that the economic crisis was the fault of the “Anglo-Saxon” model, pointing out that French and German banks were among the biggest creditors of the failed US insurance giant AIG.

Terry Smith, a prominent banker, said that the threat of increased regulation was already threatening the City’s future.

“I’ve never seen so much work going on by companies, individuals and teams of people to evaluate relocation out of the UK,” he said.
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Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6939895.ece
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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Senate Candidates Split Over Second Stimulus


LISTEN NOW
By CURT NICKISCH
Published November 23, 2009 UPDATED 12:07 PM


BOSTON — If the first stimulus was like an alarm that was supposed to wake up the economy and get it back on its feet, the economy slept right through it.

Some economists says it may not have been set loud enough.

“We’ve not done as good a job with the stimulus as we could have,” said Northeastern University labor market professor Andrew Sum. “It’s not been very well targeted. It’s not been very transparent.”

With the economy basically hitting snooze, the question facing Congress is: Let the economy wake up on its own, or give it another buzz by funding a second federal stimulus package?

Of all the candidates for Massachusetts’ open U.S. Senate seat, Democrat Alan Khazei wants to turn it up the loudest.

“I believe we need an aggressive jobs program,” Khazei said.

Khazei wants tax cuts to spur businesses to hire and invest. He also wants a slew of stimulus spending, like more national service jobs for college grads. But other candidates say Khazei has it all wrong.

“I’m definitely against a second stimulus,” said Republican Jack E. Robinson. “The only thing the stimulus stimulated was the government. And the only way to create jobs is to stimulate the private sector.”

Robinson’s idea is to drop the capital gains tax next year to coax companies into spending more on property and equipment.

His Republican primary opponent, State Sen. Scott Brown, wants to keep the tax code where it is by making President Bush’s tax cuts permanent. Brown does not want more stimulus spending.
“In Massachusetts, we’re 49th out of 50 (states) in actually releasing the money,” Brown said. “So why would we do another stimulus when we haven’t even done the first one?”
In contrast, Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, is not ruling out a second stimulus package. However, she’s not ruling one in, either.

“I’d want to make sure, before we use dollars, that we’d make sure what worked and what didn’t on Stimulus one,” Coakley said. “Particularly in Massachusetts.”

Like Coakley, Democrat Steve Pagliuca is noncommittal about a second round.

“We already have a national debt of over $12 trillion,” Pagliuca said. “That’s a scary number.”
What Pagliuca wants to do is take money from the first stimulus that hasn’t been spent yet and put those couple hundred billion dollars more directly toward job training and creation.

But Democrat Rep. Michael Capuano defends the first stimulus for saving more jobs than people realize, even if it’s not creating many. Capuano did, after all, vote for it. He is a congressman. And he says he’d vote for a second.

“The next one probably won’t be called stimulus because this one has kind of a bad name,” Capuano said. But that doesn’t bother him. “Whatever they come up with, that’s fine, I’ll use whatever term they want, he said. “If it creates jobs, I’ll be for it.”

So consider again the analogy of stimulus spending as an alarm clock that jolts the economy awake. Two Senate candidates, both Democrats, want to set the alarm again: Michael Capuano and Alan Khazei, who wants to turn it up.

The two Republicans, Scott Brown and Jack E. Robinson, want to turn it off. They say it’s too expensive and doesn’t really work.

And then Democrats Steve Pagliuca and Martha Coakley are iffy about setting it again. They’re gonna sleep on it.


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Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Economic Exposé (with Craig B. Hulet)

Analyst of geopolitics and foreign policy, Craig B. Hulet discussed how the banking bailouts were put in place by a "thugocracy" that has set the stage for a global financial system that excludes the United States. The thugocracy is composed of a group of banks that have acted like extortionists on an unprecedented scale, he commented. The President doesn't have the power "to stop the global regime of economic interdependence," which is how this group refers to itself. "I call them a medieval corporate regime that's hi-tech. It's a monstrosity that the world's never seen and because of technology, it's going to make our lives an absolute hell" and we'll have no civil rights left, he exclaimed.

A whole new system of governance is in the works, and the US is not going to be part of it, he continued. Hulet outlined how credit card companies are reducing or removing Americans' credit lines-- this will be completed by July 2010, and people will be forced to save money instead. This money, he detailed, will be used for loans and investments in new markets like China. US companies are continuing to move offshore, and 40% of all trade is now between international corporations rather than nations, he added.

Hulet also talked about geopolitics including terrorism, conflicts in the Middle East, and the 9-11 attacks. There was covered-up intelligence evidence that "nation states" (possibly including Saudi Arabia) were involved in setting up the attacks, he noted.
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Show Audio (Membership required)
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MP3 Downloads:
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Date: 11-03-09
Host: George Noory


Note: Bolds and Highlights added for emphasis.
P.S. On the program Craig B. Hulet asked a question that deeply impressed me:
Is it progress if a cannibal uses a knife and fork?
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Monday, November 02, 2009

NY Times: Second Stimulus Necessary



Monday, November 2, 2009 10:56 AM
By: Dan Weil

The consensus among mainstream economists is that another fiscal stimulus package isn’t needed yet.

The New York Times editorial page disagrees.

The majority view is that the impact of February’s $787 billion package hasn’t been fully felt yet, and the economy is headed for growth in the second half of this year in any case.

But The Times says, “The consensus among economists is that the recession is over, and, technically, the herd is probably right. Corporate profitability has been boosted by job cuts, pay cuts and a drive to restock depleted inventories. Immense federal stimulus has jolted the economy.”

But what happens next, The Times asks.

“The economy is going to need more government support, or it is bound to be very weak for a very long time — and vulnerable to a relapse into recession.”

The problems include growing joblessness, an increase in foreclosures, continued bank failures and budget crises at the state and local levels.

“Yet Washington is not providing a coherent plan for effective stimulus.”

Of course there is a reason for that. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told CNBC that a second stimulus package isn’t needed.

The first stimulus and the bank bailouts have worked to stabilize the economy, he said.
And a stealth stimulus package is being adopted anyway, in pieces, CNNMoney.com points out. These measures, including extension of unemployment benefits and a job creation tax credit, could total $84 billion, it estimates.

© 2009 Newsmax. All rights reserved.
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Friday, August 14, 2009

Government Bailouts and the Stock Market - The Seen and the Unseen

Tuesday, August 11, 2009


Government Bailouts and the Stock Market - The Seen and the Unseen


Inquiring minds are reading Cash for Clunkers Is Just a Broken Windshield by Caroline Baum. It's the best trashing to date of the "cash for clunkers" program.



Transferring money from taxpayers to car buyers is a transfer. The money taken from taxpayers can’t be used for something else.

This is the lesson of Frederic Bastiat’s essay, “That Which is Seen, and That Which is Unseen.” Bastiat, a 19th century French political economist, tells the story of a shopkeeper who has to hire a glazier to repair a broken window, providing work and income for him in the process. That’s what is seen.

What is unseen is what the shopkeeper would have done if he didn’t have to pay the glazier. He might have bought shoes for his children, providing income for the shoemaker, who in turn could buy leather to produce more shoes. The glazier’s gain is the shoemaker’s loss. There is no net gain, no job or income creation, from this transaction.

Broken Window Fallacy

The “broken window fallacy,” as it is known, can be applied to all government spending. The $787 billion fiscal stimulus enacted in February transfers money from taxpayers to the government to allocate as it sees fit. The effect of the government’s expenditures shows up as growth in gross domestic product. Auto manufacturers produce more cars to meet the juiced demand, adding to GDP. This is what’s seen.

What is unseen is what would have been produced by the private sector had the government not confiscated future revenue via taxation.

Cash for clunkers requires that trade-ins be scrapped, whether they are fully depreciated or not. How is destroying something good for the nation?

James Hamilton, professor of economics at University of California, San Diego, says cash for clunkers adopts the worst of the New Deal policies and adapts it to today’s circumstances.

The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933 “paid farmers to slaughter livestock and plow up good crops, as if destroying useful goods could somehow make the nation wealthier,” Hamilton writes on his blog. “And yet, here we are again, with the cash for clunkers program insisting that working vehicles must be junked to qualify for the subsidy.”


Caroline touched on several key issues. The first is is money taken from taxpayers can’t be used for something else. The second regards the destruction of productive assets. I will add a a couple more.

Government seldom if ever allocates resources efficiently. That is another problem with all these stimulus efforts. Without market feedback, it is difficult if not impossible to spend money wisely. At best, government pushes demand forward. At worst, government pays money to destroy productive assets while going deeper in debt to do so.

Moreover, interest on debt from all these stimulus program is adding up. Eventually taxes have to rise to cover those interest payments. Rising taxes will reduce both future demand and future business hiring.

For more on the Seen and Unseen, including an analysis of misguided Keynesian stimulus efforts, please consider On the Brink of Recovery.

Government Spending Crowds Out Private SectorHere is a chart from a recent issue of Contrary Investor that touched on the above issues.

Commercial Bank Lending vs. Federal Debt 1970 - Present


Contrary Investor Writes:

Historically the year over year rate of change in bank lending and Federal
borrowing has been negatively correlated. It has been an inverse relationship.
Not too hard to understand as the government has stepped up stimulus efforts
(borrowed stimulus efforts) when the private sector pulls back during economic
periods of slowing.

The top clip of the chart above is clear in that bank lending
(private sector borrowing) has slowed on a rate of change basis during or very
near all US recessions of the last four decades at least. Simultaneously, as the
bottom clip of the chart reveals, the annual rate of change in government
spending (federal Government borrowing) has expanded during recessions.

The period we’ve colored in red coincides almost perfectly with what was one of the
greatest and most long lived equity bull markets and economic expansions in US
history. What did that decline in Federal borrowing really represent and why did
it coincide with the equity bull?

It represented a period where the Government stopped “crowding out” the private sector in the US. The less the government competed for funds with the private sector (on a rate of change basis), the better the macro US economic outcomes that were achieved and the better the stock market reward for an increasingly private sector centric economy.


S&P 500 1970 - Present


click on chart for sharper image


Note that the biggest bull market in history came during the steepest drop in history in the year over year rate of change of federal debt.

Coincidence or Something More?

For a look at what might be coming, take another look at the Japanese stock market as presented in Effect of Household Deleveraging on Housing, Consumption and the Stock Market.


Nikkei Stock Index 1980-Present



click on chart for sharper image

A look at the Nikkei shows that Japan has already lost two decades since the peak in 1990. It is likely the US follows the same general pattern.

Keynesian clowns think the economy can be jump started by government spending. Japan tried that for a decade. Did it work? It has never worked once in history yet fools never stop trying.

All Japan has to show for its efforts is a massive increase in government debt.

Bailout Seen and the Unseen

Nearly everyone is cheering "cash for clunkers" and all the other stimulus programs. Bernanke even claims to have prevented another great depression.

Yes, the global equity markets stages a big rally. However, was that rally because of what Congress and the Fed did, or in spite of it? I think the latter. Either assertion cannot be proven.

One thing we do know for certain is there is an "unseen" price to be paid for the bailouts, and the Fed sponsored housing boom that preceded it.

The worst recession since the 1930's is the payback for the credit boom, while the payback for the bailouts is coming down the line. The likely payback for all these bailouts is structurally high unemployment and a stock market that goes nowhere for years to come.



Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comClick Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Government Bailouts and the Stock Market - The Seen and the UnseenPosted by Michael Shedlock at 11:15 AM ....


Source: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/government-bailouts-and-stock-market.html


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