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By Capt. Mike Mukula
Posted Monday, May 16 2011 at 00:00
Some readers dislike debate on issues, scenarios or phenomena that will unfold when we are long dead. They prefer politics or issues that affect them today. I urge for attitudinal change. Some people in developed countries did moot or enrich ideas that propelled them to economic prosperity. They were fully aware that it was future generations which would reap most from this endeavour.
That said, what does the impending global population explosion mean for Africa? According to the UK’s Royal Society, global population rose from 2 billion in 1930 to 6.8 billion by mid last year. It was projected to swell to 9 billion by 2050.
And according to the UN Population Division (in February), “World population, which is already poised to reach 7 billion later this year, will potentially double to 14 billion by 2100 if action is not taken.” They add: “In the medium scenario, world population peaks 9.4 billion in 2070…
“Even with significant fertility reductions, Africa’s population will likely increase by 150 per cent by 2100 and many of its countries will see their populations increase four-fold or more.”
This means Africa will comprise about 3 billion people at a time when other continents will have lesser numbers. China will comprise less than one billion while India will have about 1.5 billion people. While the fertility rate in most countries hovers between 2 and 2.5 children, in Uganda it is 6 to 7 children. And since our economic development is dismal, how will Africa sustain that huge number in terms of food and employment?
We must therefore stop depending on blue-print solutions from abroad. Leaders and professionals must generate new ideas. Due to industrial and technological development in richer countries, planet earth has taken a huge toll; climate change has become a reality. Food production will not be in tandem with the projected population. There will be lesser water and food!
Unless new solutions emerge, Africa’s future generation will be bedevilled with higher unemployment rates, lack of food, lack of water, higher levels of poverty, higher urbanisation and higher cost of living. The end-result will be instability, which could decimate the population to levels that surpass the era of slave trade.
On the positive side, we could turn the increase into a blessing. Besides encouraging Foreign Direct Investments, we must work toward compulsory universal education-- up to tertiary or university level, expunge tropical diseases, and build stronger regional economic blocs.
The population could be a vibrant market for goods and services generated from intra-African trade. This is what China’s leaders did. Instead of lamenting, they brain-stormed and found a way out. Today, much of its population no longer comprises peasants, they are middle-class urban dwellers who enhance the GDP.
On the latter point, the DR Congo, for example, holds part of the solution to Africa’s economic prosperity. It has a plethora of minerals which are on global demand but which could also be processed within Africa. Globally, it is potentially the 13th richest country.
It has potential to generate 50 per cent of Africa’s hydro-electric power. If our countries enhance regional economic blocs and pool resources, we can mitigate against population problems.
Lastly, we should not limit our discourses to politics and what we can put on our dinner tables today. Just like many of you are harnessing cash from chunks of ancestral land or Mvule trees planted by forefathers, we owe future generations a better Africa. We are duty bound to plan for and awaken the sleeping giant; Africa.
Capt. Mukula is the chairman of the Pan African Movement,
Uganda Chapter
Source
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