March 26, 2012
Rick Dandes
Although most Valley political observers believe there won't be a brokered Republican national convention -- even after Rick Santorum's win in Louisiana on Saturday over front-runner Mitt Romney -- a Bucknell University assistant professor of political science still thinks there is a slight chance it may happen.
"But I wouldn't hold my breath," added Chris Ellis, who specializes in teaching domestic politics.
"Newt Gingrich seems adamant about staying in the race, and Rick Santorum has been winning enough to accumulate a fair number of delegates," Ellis said. "But the math is very much working against both of them and I still think it is likely that Gov. Romney will get the nomination. He will be way ahead in the delegate count. His problem is he may not have the required number of delegates to win on the first ballot, and that would mean we'd have a brokered convention."
A candidate must win the support of 1,144 delegates to become the Republican nominee for president.
Although Romney is the only candidate of the three with a reasonable chance of reaching that number before the August convention, that outcome is by no means assured, especially after his losses in the South.
Modern era brokered conventions have been rare, Ellis said. "Historically, they harken back to the smoke-filled back rooms when party leaders chose candidates behind closed doors," he said. "That doesn't happen now. If Romney can't hit the magic number on the first ballot, then the brokering would begin. I can't believe the party leaders, who seem to all be behind Romney, would let this go on for long. I could see delegates being swapped for getting prime time speeches or changes in the party platform."
Ellis said that the tough primary race is not, "in and of itself, a bad thing. And even if the convention is rough and tumble, that's OK. But if it gets ugly on the floor, that could be bad for the eventual nominee. Whomever it is, I fully expect the party will eventually get behind its nominee. Whether tea party activists will fall in line in another question."
The last time Republican delegates arrived at the GOP convention uncertain who their nominee would be was 1976, when Ronald Reagan nearly took the nomination away from President Gerald Ford.
"I do not believe there will be a brokered convention, especially with Newt Gingrich staying in the race," added Yvonne Morgan, Union County Republican Committee chair. "I believe we will know the nominee by June 1, and, it will be Mitt Romney."
Many social conservatives in Pennsylvania are excited to support Santorum in the state's April 24 primary, Morgan said, "and actually have a voice in the presidential selection. I hate to be a spoiler to them, but Pennsylvania is a non-binding delegate state. This year, we were awarded 72 delegates. However, the popular vote winner is not guaranteed the delegate votes. Theoretically, a candidate could win the popular vote and walk away with zero delegates."
Beth Kremer, the Northumberland County Republican chairwoman, said, "a brokered convention is highly unlikely. Once again, it's only March and there are still a lot of delegates up for grabs. Romney is in a strong position and although his progress may be slow, slow and steady often wins the race."
Once again, Kremer said: "I'd remind people to look back at the 2008 campaign. Everyone on the left was concerned about what Hillary Clinton would do at the convention. It was only after she struck a deal with the Obama campaign that she pledged her full support. In return for her support, she got money to pay campaign bills and the secretary of state job."
Ultimately, Kremer said, all the candidates will rally around the eventual nominee in hopes of defeating President Obama.
Source: (c)2012 The Daily Item
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