Florida lost population for the first time in 63 years, spelling potentially tough times for teachers and others.
BY MARC CAPUTO
Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau
Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau
TALLAHASSEE -- For the first time since the end of World War II, the growth state of Florida lost population, researchers say, in a sign that the economic recession is even worse than many had feared.
In all, the state lost about 58,000 people from April 2008 to April 2009, according to a new estimate from the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
``It's such a dramatic shift from what we've seen in the past,'' said Stan Smith, the bureau's director.
``Florida's economy is, in a lot of ways, driven by population growth,'' he said. ``Perhaps more importantly, population growth is a reflection of how the economy is doing both in Florida and in the nation.''
Smith said the decline doesn't look like a trend. Instead, he sees it as a deviation from previous decades of growth upon which Florida's development-based economy relies. He also said the decrease is a ``drop in the bucket'' compared with Florida's 18.3 million population.
Smith said the last time Florida lost population, in 1946, it was because so many soldiers left the state's military bases to go home. This population loss, he said, is solely due to the bad economy.
The decline all but guarantees that state economists will likely revise downward state budget projections released just last week, when they forecast that Florida will receive $147 million less in taxes this budget year than they had previously anticipated.
With fewer Floridians, classrooms will likely be a little emptier than forecast. Already, the state had projected that, in the current budget year, nearly 10,000 fewer kids would be in class.
That estimate is likely to change now as well, and it could mean trouble for teachers because classroom funding is pegged to class size.
``If you have fewer students, it's not like you can't pay for the students, but you might have to let the teacher go,'' said Amy Baker, the head of the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research.
With 400,000 empty homes on the market, Baker said, the smaller population also means there aren't as many potential buyers.
For months, Gov. Charlie Crist has cheered glimmers of apparently good news in the state's economy. However, the new estimates show just how badly financial conditions have deteriorated in Florida. The state has shed a record 392,800 jobs in a year, unemployment is headed toward 11 percent and one in every 154 Florida homes are in some form of foreclosure.
The population estimate also adds weight to the criticism of many economists who say Florida's economy was a Ponzi scheme that relied on new residents.
Barney Bishop, head of the business lobby Associated Industries of Florida, said the state has a $32 billion backlog of unbuilt roads, bridges and sewers that will now be tougher to build.
``This is devastating. We need growth,'' Bishop said. ``Growth equals jobs. If we don't grow, we don't have jobs.
Marc Caputo can be reached at mcaputo@MiamiHerald.com.
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