Friday, February 05, 2016

First take: Weak job growth masks positive signs


MONEY

Paul Davidson, USA TODAY

1 hour ago


An employment report that was disappointing on its face – just 151,000 jobs were added in January -- was so chock-full of encouraging signs and mitigating factors that economists say it likely doesn’t portend a weakening labor market.

Yet analysts say there are enough mixed signals in the monthly survey to probably lead the Federal Reserve to pause again in March as it considers another interest rate hike after lifting its benchmark rate in December for the first time in nine years.



USA TODAY

Employers added 151,000 jobs in January, unemployment rate fell to 4.9%


The Fed’s policymaking committee “will likely desire to see further evidence,” Michael Gapen, chief US economist of Barclays and a former Fed staffer wrote in a note to clients.



Chuck Burton, AP

Hiring slowed in January but other signals in the government report were positive.

Markets didn't appreciate the silver linings, with the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 200 points in late-morning trading.

The 151,000 job gains marked a substantial slowdown from the average 279,000 monthly additions recorded in the fourth quarter. Those totals are from a survey of business and government establishments that feed into the headline job tally.



But a separate survey of households indicated employment increased by an eye-popping 615,000. Even after adjusting for revised annual estimates of the U.S. population, the ranks of workers increased by 409,000, according to Capital Economics. The establishment survey is generally considered a more reliable measure of employment, but the two surveys tend to converge over time and it’s not always clear which is a more accurate barometer in a given month.

Another encouraging signal is that average hourly earnings jumped 12 cents, or 0.5%, and were up 2.5% the past year, and December’s yearly gain was revised to 2.7% from 1.7%. Tepid wage growth of 2% or just above it has been the biggest source of frustration in the labor market’s recovery. But employers finally appear to be raising pay more rapidly to attract and retain workers as the low unemployment rate signals a tighter labor supply.

The average work week also ticked up, to 34.6 hours from 34.5 hours, indicating that employers are putting a bigger load on existing workers and may need to ramp up hiring soon.

Meanwhile, there were plenty of excuses for the lackluster payroll gains in the establishment survey. Unusually warm weather inflated job growth late last year and so some payback in January was expected.

And while the big Northeast snowstorm hit after the Labor Department conducted its surveys, harsh weather still appeared to keep an unusual number of workers at home. The number of Americans who didn’t work because of bad weather increased by 144,000 to 269,000, above the 94,000 median rise over the past 10 reports for January, Jim O’Sullivan, chief US economist of High Frequency Economics, wrote to clients.

And employment among temporary workers and couriers was hurt by sharp slowdowns after the busy holiday season that wasn’t fully accounted for by seasonal adjustments.

“The January employment report was not the disaster the markets were bracing for, or even anticipating,” Scott Anderson, chief economist of Bank of the West, wrote in a research note.

Still, job growth in services sectors that had been strong sputtered, raising concerns that the global economic troubles afflicting manufacturers may be spreading. It “bears watching, but probably just reflects a downshift into a more sustainable pace of expansion,” Anderson wrote.,

Gapen says the development “is likely to keep uncertainty about the state of the economy elevated.” He had expected the Fed to raise rates again in March but now expects policymakers to wait until June.





Obama just took a victory lap on the economy and mocked Republicans' 'doom and despair' tour



Allan Smith

29m



Screenshot/WhiteHouse.govUS President Barack Obama

President Barack Obama took time Friday to boast about the January jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate dropping to its lowest rate in eight years.

He also used the speech as a chance to mock Republican presidential candidates for criticizing the economy on the campaign trail.

"The United States of America has the strongest, most durable economy in the world," he said. "I know that's still inconvenient for Republican stump speeches as their doom and despair tour plays are in New Hampshire."

He began his press conference by mentioning that unemployment is below 5% nationally for the first time in eight years — and that the deficit and gas prices are down.

"We also have to do more to make sure the progress we make is broadly based," Obama said. "Talking down the American economy does not bring that progress."

When he was later asked about why many Americans remain anxious about the economy, he said the US should be "proud" of the progress under his administration.

"If we embraced Republican strategies we would've done worse," he said, pointing to European austerity measures.

"Because Europe did a lot of those things and they haven't recovered yet," he continued. "This jobs report gives one more indication that the facts are on our side."

He then added that the idea that "immigrants and poor people" are taking away money out of people's paychecks "is just not true," a not-so-subtle shot at rhetoric emanating from the Republican presidential field.

"The facts don't bear that out," he said.

Friday's jobs report showed that wage growth, too, was stronger than anticipated, in addition to the manufacturing sector adding its greatest number of jobs since August 2012. The labor-force participation rate rose slightly, as well.


Source



President Obama Remarks at Baltimore Mosque Jan. 3, 2016 [FULL SPEECH]




Published on Feb 3, 2016

'Muslim Americans keep up safe' President Obama spoke at the Islamic Society of Baltimore. In Maryland, President Barack Obama makes his first visit to a U.S. mosque, the Islamic Society of Baltimore, as Commander in Chief to make remarks on protecting religious freedom.

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President Obama 2016 National Prayer Breakfast FULL SPEECH



President Obama 2016 National Prayer Breakfast FULL SPEECH


Published on Feb 4, 2016

February 4, 2016 
President Obama spoke at the 64th annual National Prayer Breakfast at Washington Hilton Hotel, Washington DC.
Obama: I Visited a Mosque to Let Our Muslim-American Brothers and Sisters Know They’re Americans
Obama Quotes Mandela: Courage Is Not the Absence of Fear but the Triumph over It
Obama: ‘I Have Always Felt a Tinge of Guilt Motorcading up Here at the Heart of D.C.’s Rush Hour’
Obama Laments ‘Unceasing’ Media that Amplifies Conflict
Obama: When Syrians Seek Refuge, the Faithful from Synagogues, Mosques, Churches Welcome Them

-------------------------------

P.S.

No Ben Carson this time!

Now, it's one of the BOYZ.



Juan Vargas, Congressman (D) California, a Jesuit...

After college, Vargas joined the Jesuit Novitiate (introduction) in Santa Barbara. In the Jesuits, Vargas served in an orphanage in the civil-war-torn jungles of El Salvador. After leaving the Jesuits, he decided on law school and graduated in 1991 with a JD from Harvard Law School,[3] making him a classmate of President Barack Obama. 

In second sermon this week, Obama tells evangelicals ‘Jesus is a good cure for fear’


Acts of Faith

February 4 at 3:03 PM



President Barack Obama closes his eyes while a prayer is made at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)



Obama says faith is 'great cure' for fear
Play Video3:29


Speaking at the annual National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, President Barack Obama said faith is the "great cure" for fear. (The White House)

On Wednesday, President Obama went to a mosque to encourage Muslims not to be afraid. On Thursday, he told one of the most influential Christian gatherings of the year that their “fear can do funny things” and that faith is the cure. “Jesus is a good cure for fear,” the president said.

[Obama speaks to country’s fears at prayer breakfast]

Obama’s comments to the National Prayer Breakfast were highly anticipated, as the annual Christian power-fest often makes news, especially in recent years as it has showcased a liberal Christian president and a crowd that leans conservative. Last year Obama told Christians not to get on their “high horse” about violence inspired by Islam, setting off angry criticism, and in recent years the breakfast has featured speakers — presidential candidate–doctor Ben Carson and author Eric Metaxas — who criticized Obama as he sat next to them, thrilling his detractors.

But in 2016, as Obama’s presidency is winding down and many Americans view topics related to religion as a lit fuse, the event seemed aimed at striking a healing tone. Obama’s constant theme was the importance of fighting fear, a religious duty he conceded he struggles with himself.

During his presidency, “that’s what faith has done for me. It helps me deal with the common, everyday fears that we all share,” he said. “God gives believers the power, the love, the sound mind required to conquer any fear, and what more important moment for that faith than right now? What better time than these changing, tumultuous times to have Jesus standing beside us, steadying our minds, cleansing our hearts?” In closing, Obama said: “I pray that my failings are forgiven.”

Without naming Islam in particular as the “some sinister other” of which Americans are afraid, Obama made that point explicitly 24 hours earlier, when he traveled to a suburban Baltimore mosque — his first U.S. mosque visit as president. In a historic 45-minute talk at the Islamic Society of Baltimore that was part history lesson, part pep talk, Obama encouraged Muslims and framed their critics as anti-American.

[In 2009, Obama sought to build a U.S.-Muslim World bridge. In mosque visit, his aims were more modest]

At Thursday’s event, he continued to highlight religious tolerance, a theme he has touched on more and more in recent months as the presidential race has become increasingly religiously divisive. Obama’s words are desperately wanted and appreciated by some but rejected by others, particularly some religious conservatives who see the administration as having been dismissive of their concerns, on subjects such as gay marriage, contraception and abortion. Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro quipped that the president has been good — in a way — for religious life.





P.S.
This gives the (acronym) descriptive initials, POTUS, a new meaning, Pontificator Of The United States.
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Pope and Russian Orthodox leader to hold historic encounter in Cuba


World



Pope Francis delivers his speech during a meeting with scholars at the Vatican on Wednesday. (Giorgio Onorati/EPA)


By Andrew Roth and Brian Murphy February 5 at 10:24 AM


MOSCOW — Pope Francis and the leader of the powerful Russian Orthodox Church plan a historic meeting next week in Cuba, officials said Friday, marking the most significant steps ever attempted to heal a schism that has divided Christianity between East and West for nearly 1,000 years.

The meeting — the first between a pope and Russian patriarch — would culminate decades of overtures for closer dialogue. The churches have been formally estranged since the 11th century over issues such as papal authority and, more recently, by disputes over Roman Catholic reach into traditionally Orthodox regions.

The planned encounter next Friday between Francis and Patriarch Kirill I at Havana’s airport also highlights apparent moves toward greater solidarity amid current worries. Among them: pressures facing ancient Christian communities in the Middle East from militant groups such as the Islamic State.

[Pope also faces rifts inside the Vatican]

Even the venue carries significance. Cuba, which once suppressed the Roman Catholic church as a Soviet client state, was picked because the legacy of Christian rifts remains too vivid in Europe, a Russian church official said.

A full reconciliation would require major changes on both sides, but warmer ties sanctioned by the highest authorities would represent one of the biggest modern shifts in the world’s religious landscape.

The Russian Church is by far the largest and most influential in the Orthodox world, which is a patchwork of various churches and patriarchs.

At the planned meeting — scheduled for José Martí International Airport — the two leaders are expected to sign a joint declaration. The details, however, were not immediately disclosed.

Francis will fly to Cuba before traveling on to Mexico for a six-day tour of the country.

Patriarch Kirill is scheduled to arrive next Thursday in Havana for an 11-day tour of South America, which will also include stops in Paraguay, Chile, and Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo in Brazil.

[Francis looks to the Middle East with concern]

“This meeting of the Primates of the Catholic Church and the Russian Orthodox Church, after a long preparation, will be the first in history and will mark an important stage in relations between the two Churches,” said a joint press release.

“The Holy See and the Moscow Patriarchate hope that it will also be a sign of hope for all people of good will. They invite all Christians to pray fervently for God to bless this meeting, that it may bear good fruits,” it added.

The meeting would cap decades of outreach seeking to bridge suspicions and rifts that span both historical and contemporary grievances, which have so far blocked any papal visit to Russia.

Among the obstacles that have complicated deeper dialogue are long-held claims by Moscow that the Roman Catholics have been seeking to expand Rome-affiliated churches in traditional Christian Orthodox areas.

Eastern Rite churches, which retain Orthodox traditions but are loyal to the Vatican, have been among the thorniest issues blocking attempts to heal the divisions between the world’s more than 1 billion Roman Catholics and more than 200 million Orthodox.

[Meet the progressive cardinal with outsized influence in the Holy See]

Although Catholics and Orthodox remain estranged on other issues — including married clergy and the centralized power of the Vatican — there have been significant moves over the generations toward closer interactions and understanding.

The first major breakthrough came in 1964 when Pope Paul VI met in Jerusalem with Patriarch Athenagoras I, then the ecumenical patriarch, known as the “first among equals,” or nominal leader of the Orthodox churches.

It was the first encounter between a pope and an Orthodox patriarch in more than 500 years. The meeting led to the lifting of mutual excommunication edicts and the Catholic-Orthodox Joint Declaration of 1965 that called for greater harmony among the churches.

An apostolic letter by John Paul II in 1995 encouraged unity between the two branches of Christianity and opened the way for a historic visit to Rome by the current ecumenical patriarch, Bartholomew I.

In 2001, Pope John Paul II made a landmark trip to mostly Orthodox Greece and issued an apology for the ravages of the Fourth Crusade, which in the early 13th century sacked Constantinople, now Istanbul, the seat of the Eastern church.

In 2006, Pope Benedict XVI was hosted by the Bartholomew in Istanbul in a visit that brought protests from some archconservative Orthodox but cleared the way for more exchanges.

[Gallery: Francis’s first Africa trip]

The relationship between the two churches also has been influenced by secular politics.

Metropolitan Hilarion of Volokolamsk, a senior Russian church leader, told reporters that the patriarch did not want to meet the pope in Europe because of its links “to the sad history of the division and conflicts between Christians.”

But the patriarch agreed to Cuba, he continued, because of conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere where “an authentic genocide of the Christian population by extremists requires immediate measures and closer cooperation between the Christian churches.”

The remarks from the church official dovetailed, as they often do, with the Kremlin’s portrayal of the conflict in Syria as one between the legitimate government of President Bashar al-Assad and extremist militias. When Russia began airstrikes last year in Syria to back its ally Assad, Patriarch Kirill called the effort “a holy battle.”

Discussions on a meeting between the pope and the patriarch had been held as far back as 1996, when church officials drew up plans and a joint statement to be signed by Pope John Paul II and Patriarch Alexy II in Hungary.

But the negotiations collapsed because of disagreements about the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, an Eastern Rite church that the Moscow patriarchy complained was proselytizing in its traditional sphere of influence.

Those concerns were reignited during the 2014 Maidan revolution in Ukraine, when the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church sided with the protesters, angering the Moscow patriarchy and the Kremlin.

At the same time, Pope Francis has been careful not to wade into the conflict. However, he angered Ukrainian protesters by calling the conflict in that country a “civil war,” a term that supporters of the new government believe obscures Russia’s role in the conflict.

“I think it’s fair to say that the Vatican has been very careful in its references to Ukraine,” said Andrei Zolotov Jr., a writer on religion and the executive editor in Europe for Russia Direct, a political journal focusing on Russia. “The Vatican has made calls for peace, said it is praying for peace, but not taking sides.”

Previous pontiffs, meanwhile, have been appraised with a possibly harsher eye by the Kremlin. The Polish-born John Paul II directly challenged the former Soviet Union during the early years of his papacy. His successor, Benedict, was often seen through the prism of his former role as the Vatican’s chief overseer of Catholic doctrine.

Murphy reported from Washington. The Associated Press contributed to this report.


Source

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

The Circus Puts on a Special Performance for Pope Francis in the Vatican City





Published on Jan 27, 2016

A group of Italian circus performers from various circuses put on a show for Pope Francis on Jan. 27. This followed his usual weekly meeting in St. Peter’s Square.

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Immigration at Center of Pope's Visit to Mexico-US Border



By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN, ASSOCIATED PRESSREYNOSA, Mexico — Jan 27, 2016, 1:05 AM ET



The young Salvadoran woman was robbed and forced to dodge kidnappers working for a drug cartel during her four-month odyssey to this border city of belching factories and swirling dust across the Rio Grande from Texas.

She hoped to be on the other side long before Pope Francis visits the region next month and delivers what promises to be a highly symbolic homily addressing immigration. Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims will flock to the border to hear him speak, and America's political class will likely be listening as well. Francis' Feb. 17 Mass in Ciudad Juarez comes just eight days after the New Hampshire primaries, and three before contests in South Carolina and Nevada.


Immigration has been a hot-button campaign issue particularly among Republican hopefuls such as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, who have taken an increasingly hard line with Trump vowing to deport the more than 11 million immigrants living in the country illegally and Cruz aiming to end birthright citizenship for their U.S.-born children. It is also an issue close to Francis' heart, and while analysts doubt he will wade too blatantly into the political thicket, his very presence along the border speaking on the issue will turn heads.

"Migration is a complicated situation and he's not going to ignore the demands of national sovereignty ... (but) he's calling for a more open and generous approach," said Tom Quigley, formerLatin America policy adviser for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. "You can't assume that he's going to say 'You all come,' but he will clearly be urging the United States government, implicitly at least, to find ways of addressing the reasons why people are leaving El Salvador and Honduras and other countries."

For the Salvadoran woman, who gave only her last name, Miranda, all the talk makes little difference to her plans. She said she was not even aware the Pope was coming, and nothing Trump or the other candidates say can dissuade her from seeking a better life.

Back home in El Salvador — which last year recorded a homicide rate of 103 per 100,000 inhabitants, believed to be the highest of any country not in open war — she faced death threats from hyper-violent gangs that rule entire neighborhoods largely unchallenged.

"It does not make you want to go less," Miranda said of the rhetoric, "because you know that immigration is never going to stop."


Violence is also rampant in neighboring Guatemala and Honduras, the latter of which had been the world's reigning murder capital in recent years. Gangs in all three countries kill with impunity, extort broad swaths of the population and recruit young people so aggressively that some stop attending school or even leaving home.

Living in many parts of those countries "is like living in a dark, dangerous, dead-end alley, and migration is a dark, dangerous tunnel — but it's a tunnel," said Kay Andrade Eekhoff, who works for Catholic Relief Services in El Salvador overseeing programs for at-risk Central American youth.

Statistics show that many continue to risk the tunnel, despite a surge in enforcement by the U.S. and by Mexico along its own southern frontier. U.S. Customs and Border Protection says apprehensions of unaccompanied children mostly from Central America totaled 17,370 in October-December. That was up 117 percent from the same period a year earlier, while apprehensions of families rose 187 percent. Still, total detentions remain well below historic highs.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents on Jan. 2 began rounding up Central American immigrants who entered without permission since May 2014.

Earlier this month Secretary of State John Kerry announced an expansion of a program letting Central Americans apply for refugee status before traveling north. But some say they may not qualify, or it's simply too dangerous to wait.

Those in a hurry include a 20-year-old man in San Salvador who was deported from the U.S. just months ago. On his last trip north, last summer, the Gulf drug cartel kidnapped and held him in Reynosa for five weeks until his family scraped together ransom. U.S. border agents later captured and sent him home. A police officer's son, he's now planning to try again after getting gang threats.

"They told me if I did not join them, something was going to happen to me or my dad," the man said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of gang reprisals.

Francis has made the plight of migrants one of the hallmarks of his papacy, denouncing what he called the "globalization of indifference" toward people desperate to flee poverty and persecution. He has taken his message of compassion to Lampedusa, Italy, destination for many African migrants, and to the European Union and the United Nations.

Last fall in the U.S. Congress, Francis lectured lawmakers that "we must not be taken aback by (migrants') numbers but rather view them as persons." He reminded them that they, too, descended from immigrants drawn by the dream of a new future.

In Ciudad Juarez, the Argentine-born Francis plans to celebrate Mass in a huge open field on the border and then walk to the Rio Grande to salute people on the other side in a powerful show of solidarity with his Latin American compatriots. Vatican officials say he intends to address violence and drug trafficking as well. Francis will also come close to fulfilling his wish to cross the border during the U.S. visit, something that was ultimately scrapped for logistical reasons.

It's a message that resonates with Sister Norma Pimentel, director of Catholic Charities of the Rio Grande Valley.

"They are people and we need to treat them that way," said Pimentel, whose work Francis has praised and who was invited to meet him in New York last year. "They need our help, and so we welcome them to restore their dignity."

Pimentel's center at the Sacred Heart church in McAllen receives about 100 migrants a day who have been detained, processed and released by the Border Patrol. Each adult gets an electronic monitoring anklet to ensure they make court appearances.

On a recent morning, Erica Johana Garcia was breakfasting with her two children at the center before catching a bus for the final leg of their journey to Los Angeles. They left Guatemala after thugs told her 15-year-old son they would rape his 8-year-old sister if he didn't join their gang.

Fingering her ankle bracelet, Garcia, 34, vowed to fight to be able to stay.

"I can't go back because I risk my children," she said, "especially my son."

———

Associated Press writers Peter Orsi in Mexico City and Nicole Winfield in Rome contributed.



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Monday, February 01, 2016

Carson blasts separation of church and state; announces short break from campaign trail





By Ben Wolfgang - The Washington Times

Monday, February 1, 2016


Dr. Ben Carson on Monday night made a last-minute pitch to evangelical voters in Iowa, saying the U.S. must not hide behind “political correctness” and banish God from the public square.

Speaking at a caucus site in Clive, Iowa, Mr. Carson denounced the notion of separation of church and state.

“We Americans must be proud of who we are. We cannot give away our values and principles for the sake of political correctness,” he said as tallies began to come in from the crucial Iowa caucuses, the first contest in the presidential primary season.

“There are those who go around proclaiming separation of church and state. You can’t put anything up that has anything to do with God … I’ll have a seizure if I see a cross and all of this kind of crap,” he continued. “The fact of the matter is — do they realize that our founding document, the Declaration of Independence, says we have certain unalienable rights given to us by our creator, AKA, God.”

Polling shows Mr. Carson trailing far behind other GOP candidates, including businessman Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio.

Mr. Carson’s campaign announced that he will head home after the caucuses and take a break from the campaign trail for a few days.

Mr. Carson is “leaving Des Moines later tonight to avoid storm. Not suspending — getting fresh clothes then back out Wednesday,” campaign strategist Jason Osborne tweeted.


Evil Men And Seducers Waxing Worse And Worse!



Volume XXXV Issue II February 2016
Last Trumpet Ministries, PO Box 806, Beaver Dam, WI 53916
Phone: 920-887-2626 Internet: http://www.lasttrumpetministries.org



"But evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving, and being deceived. But continue thou in the things which thou hast learned and hast been assured of, knowing of whom thou hast learned them; And that from a child thou hast known the holy scriptures, which are able to make thee wise unto salvation through faith which is in Christ Jesus."


II Timothy 3:13-15

"But ye are a chosen generation, a royal priesthood, an holy nation, a peculiar people; that ye should shew forth the praises of him who hath called you out of darkness into his marvellous light; Which in time past were not a people, but are now the people of God: which had not obtained mercy, but now have obtained mercy."

I Peter 2:9-10

"I beseech you therefore, brethren, by the mercies of God, that ye present your bodies a living sacrifice, holy, acceptable unto God, which is your reasonable service. And be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God."


Romans 12:1-2


In this issue of the Last Trumpet Newsletter, we will consider the current events of our day and the impact they are having around the world. Is the world we live in today getting better, or are conditions on this planet actually growing worse? We often hear notable figures tell us how wonderful everything is in this modern age. This is something that President Barack Obama has done on more than one occasion. Speaking at the United Nations in September 2014, Obama was quoted as saying, "I often tell young people in the United States that despite the headlines, this is the best time in human history to be born, for you are more likely than ever before to be literate, to be healthy, to be free to pursue your dreams." (1) This sentiment was recently echoed by United States Secretary of State John Kerry. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January 2016, Kerry told his audience, "We are not living in a new normal and we don't have to. We are not the prisoners of a predetermined future. Change is occurring in our world for the better and it is occurring faster, moving faster than ever before." (2) Despite the assertions of Barack Obama and John Kerry, the real life experience for billions of people around the globe shows that conditions are not changing for the better. In fact, we live in a world today where the persecution of Christian people is at an all time high, while moral values seem to be disappearing, and even the often praised global economy is on shaky footing.

On January 20, 2016, it was reported by an organization known as Open Doors that the Christian population in numerous countries is suffering persecution at an intensity never before seen in modern history. "The 2016 World Watch List documents an unprecedented escalation of violence against Christians, making this past year the most violent and sustained attack on Christian faith in modern history," said David Curry who is the chief executive officer at Open Doors. He later went on to say, "The levels of exclusion, discrimination and violence against Christians is unprecedented, spreading and intensifying. Christians, longing to stay in their home countries are being forced to flee for their lives and for their children's lives." (3) Persecution is most common in Islamic countries where Christians are the minority. However, communist countries such as China and North Korea are also hostile to Christianity. It is estimated that between 50,000 and 70,000 Christians are imprisoned and subjected to hard labor in North Korea. (4)

I have a feeling that those who are enduring such persecution would likely disagree with John Kerry's belief that "change is occurring in our world for the better." Indeed, such a notion is actually contradictory to Scripture. We are warned by the Apostle Paul in II Timothy 3:13, "But evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving, and being deceived."

The Destruction Of The Family Unit In America!

Life in the United States has changed drastically since the turn of the century. One of the most significant changes we have seen is the destruction of the family unit. It is a bit ironic that homosexual couples have waged such a fierce battle in recent years for the right to "marry" their same-sex partners while an increasing number of straight couples are forgoing marriage altogether. As a result, a high percentage of children born in the United States today are born out of wedlock. This trend was noted by the New York Times about four years ago in an article published on February 17, 2012. At the time, the report noted that more than one half of all births by women under the age of 30 occurred outside of marriage, a development which the paper referred to as "the new normal." (5) Recent data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC, indicates that an astounding 40.6 percent of all births in the United States now occur out of wedlock. (6) Amazingly enough, this prevailing tendency does not appear to be a concern for most Americans. A study conducted by Gallup in May 2015 found that 61 percent of respondents said it is morally acceptable to have children outside of marriage. (7)

Of course, this would not be happening if people adhered to the Biblical standards on intimacy. However, unwed mothers and broken families are not the only problems. Behavior that has now become normal in much of the world, including the United States, has led to an astounding proliferation of sexually transmitted diseases, or STDs. According to data published by the CDC in October 2014, about 50.5 million men and 59.5 million women in the United States are infected with an STD. (8) To put things in perspective, the United States Census Bureau estimates that the entire population of the United States at this present time is about 322 million people. (9)

Sadly, sin often leads to more sin, and the most heinous sin of all has become common in the land today. The barbaric practice of abortion is not only accepted and tolerated in the United States, it is praised and promoted. Insomuch that American President Barack Obama issues a statement each year commemorating the United States Supreme Court's 1973 decision to legalize abortion. On January 22, 2016, Obama issued the following declaration: "Today, we mark the 43rd anniversary of the Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade, which affirmed a woman's freedom to make her own choices about her body and not intrude on private decisions made between a woman and her doctor. As we commemorate this day, we also redouble our commitment to protecting these constitutional rights, including protecting a woman's access to safe, affordable health care, and her right to reproductive freedom from efforts to undermine or overturn them. In America, every single one of us deserve the rights, freedoms, and opportunities to fulfill our dreams." (10) This decision that Obama chooses to commemorate has resulted in the loss of over 58 million innocent lives in the United States. (11)

Amazingly enough, there are abortion specialists in this country who seem to believe that God smiles down on them as they slaughter babies. In a recent letter to the editor of the Des Moines Register in Des Moines, Iowa, medical director for Planned Parenthood of the Heartland Jill Meadows wrote, "I am an abortion health care provider, and I am proud of what I do. It's a privilege to be a positive presence in a person's life at a time when she most deserves care and compassion." She later went on to write, "Planned Parenthood provides evidence-based, compassionate, non-judgmental, high quality, affordable reproductive health care. It is time for people who are anti-abortion to stop using terror, lies, hate rhetoric, misinformation, and violence against us. Regardless, we will not be bullied and intimidated into abandoning the people who depend on us. I will continue to follow my God-given calling of being an abortion care provider. Our doors will stay open. No matter what." (12) This woman actually believes that God has called her to kill babies, and she is not the only one who has this warped point of view. Another article, written by a young doctor known as Carolyn Payne states, "Who wants to be an abortion provider? I do. And I don't have a nose-ring or a tattoo. I'm a 5' foot blonde from Ohio and my last boyfriend was a pastor. In fact, my Midwest, Christian upbringing is largely responsible for my belief that providing abortion services is one of the most meaningful ways I feel I can contribute to making the world a more fair and equal place for women." Payne later made the claim that performing her first abortion made her feel good. "Providing our first MVA (manual vacuum aspiration abortion) was a 'feel good procedure,' because we had successfully performed an intervention that changed a woman's life for the better!" (13) Perhaps these women have never read Matthew 18:14 in which Jesus makes the declaration, "Even so it is not the will of your Father which is in heaven, that one of these little ones should perish."

Is The Global Economy In Trouble?

For many of us, memories of the Great Recession of 2008 are still fresh in our minds. After all, 2008 was not so long ago. In recent years, we have been told that a recovery is in full-swing, and as such we need not worry about the global economy. However, the year of 2016 has already seen much economic instability, and prominent figures are warning that the situation could soon be much worse. One such figure is William White, who is the chairman of the review committee at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD. Speaking of the current condition of the global economy, Mr. White was quoted as saying, "The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up." He later went on to say, "Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief. It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something." (14) Meanwhile, elitist billionaire George Soros has warned that the recent currency devaluation in China could lead to another global financial crisis. "China has a major adjustment problem. I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008," Soros said. (15)

The United States is already facing numerous economic issues. In fact, the United States territory of Puerto Rico has defaulted on its debts. In a letter dated January 17, 2016, and addressed to United States House of Representatives speaker Paul Ryan, United States Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew wrote, "I write to update you and your colleagues on Puerto Rico's debit crisis. I appreciate the recent commitment by congressional leadership to produce a responsible solution for Puerto Rico. In order to assist the 3.5 million Americans living in Puerto Rico, Congress must pass legislation for the President to sign into law before the end of March. Although there are many ways this crisis could escalate further, it is clear that Puerto Rico is already in the midst of an economic collapse." Lew further went on to write, "Puerto Rico is already in default. It is shifting funds from one creditor to pay another and has stopped payment altogether on several of its debts." (16)

I think it is safe to say we all have an appreciation for lower prices at the gas pump. However, the falling cost of oil has already wreaked havoc in the United States. According to a report by CNN, the low cost of oil has caused 42 American companies to file for bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015. (17) Additionally, an estimated 250,000 people have lost their jobs. (18) The problem could be further complicated in the coming months now that Western sanctions on the nation of Iran have been lifted, and Iran has the option to sell its oil to the world for the first time since 2012.

As is usual for the United States, a large federal deficit is projected for the year 2016. In fact, the deficit is set to increase by 24 percent this year to 544 billion dollars. The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, estimates that the federal deficit in the year 2022 will exceed one trillion dollars. (19) Naturally, the national debt of the United States, has also continued to rise, and is now on the verge of reaching 19 trillion dollars. (20) At its current pace, the national debt will reach a mind-boggling 27 trillion dollars by the year 2025. (21)

We live in a world today that is driven by debt. It is not a uniquely American problem as there are many countries that have an enormous amount of debt. In fact, a report published by the World Economic Forum in July 2015 indicates that the top three most indebted nations in the world are Japan, Greece, and Italy. (22) Do the countries of this world ever intend to pay off their debt? I do not believe they do. A time will come when debt in the United States and other countries around the world will reach a point where it cannot progress any further. I believe that when that happens the economies of the world will collapse, and a new one-world economy will be ushered into existence. In an effort to entice the masses to accept this economic structure, we will be told that all previous debt is forgiven. However, the new system will envelope the entire world in a global, electronic, and cashless society. Those who refuse to accept this new order of things will find they are no longer able to buy or sell.

A World United In Conformity!

In last month's issue of The Last Trumpet, I covered in great detail the plans of the United Nations to unite the entire world under a system of global governance by the year 2030. Their agenda, which they call "The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," is an ambitious plan which includes a global economy, global educational system, and global healthcare. In January 2016, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson promoted this new agenda. "Fundamental principles that underpin the new goals are interdependence, universality, and solidarity. They should be implemented by all segments of all societies, working together. No one must be left behind. People who are hardest to reach should be given priority," Eliasson said. He later went on to say, "We must be ready to think - and to act - comprehensively and holistically. Every actor, every country, every international and regional organization has a responsibility to work in synergy, translating the Agenda into practical realities on the ground." (23) Quite clearly, he is speaking of a one world government. Not only that, but it is apparent that the United Nations is expecting every man woman and child to conform to their specifications as docile and compliant global citizens. Within the text of the Agenda itself, we find the following words, "We reaffirm the importance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, as well as other international instruments relating to human rights and international law. We emphasize the responsibilities of all States, in conformity with the Charter of the United Nations, to respect, protect, and promote human rights and fundamental freedoms for all…" (24) When I read these words, I cannot help but think of the Scripture we find in Romans 12:2, which declares, "And be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God." Note that the Bible specifically calls for God's people to be non-conformists. In fact, Jesus Christ, when He was here in bodily form on this earth, was the greatest non-conformist who ever lived. The Scriptures never instruct the children of God to unite with the world. In reality, I Peter chapter 2 tells us that we are a "peculiar people."

Incidentally, those who were looking forward to Obama disappearing from the spotlight after his second presidential term ends may be in for a disappointment if Obama gets his way. News reports surfaced in January 2016 which indicate that Barack Obama is covertly campaigning to succeed Ban Ki-Moon as Secretary-General of the United Nations. This development raised the ire of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who reportedly said, "Wasn't eight years of having Obama in office enough?" (25)

Meanwhile, Pope Francis has continued his campaign to unite the religions of the world. Speaking in a video released in January 2016 for the Feast of Epiphany, Pope Francis is heard to say, "Most of the planet's inhabitants declare themselves believers. This should lead to dialogue among religions. We should not stop praying for it and collaborating with those who think differently." He then went on to say, "Many think differently, feel differently, seeking God or meeting God in different ways. In this crowd, in this range of religions, there is only one certainty that we have for all: we are all children of God." (26) The video also features a female lama who expresses her confidence in Buddha, a Jewish rabbi who expresses his belief in God, a priest who says he believes in Jesus Christ, and a Muslim who declares his faith in Allah. (27) Amazingly, the Pope's message directly contradicts the words of Jesus. In John 14:6 Jesus tells us, "… I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me." In John 8:44, Jesus dispels the notion that every person is a child of God when he tells his opponents, "Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it."

According to a report published by the Christian Post in January 2016, Pope Francis has been invited to visit the Great Mosque in Rome. In a visit with the Pope, Islamic leaders from the mosque reportedly told Pope Francis that it was an "honor to meet you and recognize your moral and spiritual leadership. We are honored to invite you to the Islamic Cultural Center." In response, Pope Francis told his guests that it would be "a great pleasure to visit you also, because it would be a great sign of our brotherhood." (28)

Chaos In Europe!

In recent months, much has been said about the migrant crisis in Europe. Due in a large part to the civil war in Syria, many migrants and refugees have left their nation of origin and have made Europe their new home. In fact, over one million migrants entered Europe in the year of 2015. Half of them came from Syria. (29) As would be expected, this sudden increase in population has required an enormous amount of resources and has put a significant strain on the infrastructure in European communities. Amazingly enough, the aforementioned George Soros offered his opinion on the crisis in Europe and has suggested that the European Union is on the verge of collapse. "There is plenty to be nervous about. As she (German Chancellor Angela Merkel) correctly predicted, the EU (European Union) is on the verge of collapse. The Greek crisis taught the European authorities the art of muddling through one crisis after another. This practice is popularly known as kicking the can down the road, although it would be more accurate to describe it as kicking a ball uphill so that it keeps rolling back down." Soros then went on to say, "Merkel correctly foresaw the potential of the migration crisis to destroy the European Union. What was a prediction has become the reality." (30)

As would be expected, the cultural differences between the migrants and the Europeans has been a cause for contention throughout the European Union. Sadly, it has become apparent that many of the migrants are rather rowdy men who have an extremely low opinion of women. Such attitudes led to a shocking attack on December 31, 2015. On this day, over 800 women were assaulted as they were taking part in a New Year's Eve celebration in Cologne, Germany. (31) The attacks, many of which were sexual in nature, were perpetrated by men of Arab or North African appearance. (32) German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed outrage over the attacks and promised that efforts would be made "to find the perpetrators as quickly and comprehensively as possible and punish them, regardless of their origin or background." (33) It is important to note that attacks such as these are not new. In fact, similar attacks occurred in Sweden in 2014. "It was a modus operandi that we had never seen before: large groups of young men who surround girls and molest them. In the cases where we were able to apprehend suspects, they were with a foreign background, newly arrived refugees age 17-20, who had come to Sweden without their families," said Stockholm city administration official Roger Ticoalu. (34) Needless to say, tensions are running high in Europe. The perpetrators of these assaults certainly did not help the cause of migrants seeking to garner support for their plight.

In closing, the news headlines of today make it very clear that the world we live in is not changing for the better. I am certain that we will face many challenges in the days ahead. Yet, we serve a gracious God who always gives us the strength we need to overcome the world. In I John 5:4 we read, "For whatsoever is born of God overcometh the world: and this is the victory that overcometh the world, even our faith." If you have not yet given your heart to God and dedicated your life to Him, I urge you to do so now. In so doing, He will give you the strength you need to endure to the end.

Thank you to all who support this ministry. We could not do what we do without your help, and we are thankful for each and every one of you. As always, we are here and ready to pray for your needs and we invite you to send us your prayer requests. We always give each request individual attention. We at Last Trumpet Ministries firmly believe that God hears us when we cry out to Him, and we have seen many answered prayers over the years. Grace and peace be unto you in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ.


Samuel David Meyer


Acknowledgements
01. Official Speech Transcript, September 24, 2014, By Barack Obama, http://whitehouse.gov.
02. Bloomberg News, January 22, 2016, By Ian Wishart, http://bloomberg.com.
03. Breitbart News, January 20, 2016, By Thomas D. Williams, Ph.D, http://breitbart.com.
04. Ibid.
05. The New York Times, February 17, 2012, By Jason DeParle and Sabrina Tavernise, http://nytimes.com.
06. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, September 30, 2015, http://cdc.gov.
07. Gallup, May 28, 2015, By Jeffrey M. Jones, http://gallup.com.
08. CBS Local News, October 6, 2014, By CBS Local News, http://atlanta.cbslocal.com.
09. The United States Census Bureau, January 23, 2016, http://census.gov.
10. CNS News, January 22, 2016, By CNS News Staff, http://cnsnews.com.
11. Ibid.
12. Life News, January 15, 2016, By Micaiah Bilger, http://lifenews.com.
13. Life News, December 29, 2015, By Micaiah Bilger, http://lifenews.com.
14. The Telegraph, January 19, 2016, By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, http://telegraph.co.uk.
15. Bloomberg News, January 6, 2016, By Anusha Ondaatjie and Adam Haigh, http://bloomberg.com.
16. Economic Policy Journal, January 17, 2016, Posted by Robert Wenzel, http://economicpolicyjournal.com.
17. CNN, January 18, 2016, By Matt Egan, http://cnn.com.
18. The New York Times, January 22, 2016, By Clifford Krauss, http://nytimes.com.
19. The Washington Times, January 19, 2016, By Stephen Dinan, http://washingtontimes.com.
20. National Review, January 20, 2016, By Michael Tanner, http://nationalreview.com.
21. Ibid.
22. World Economic Forum, July 16, 2015, By Jose Santiago, http://weforum.org.
23. UN News Centre, January 13, 2016, By UN News Centre, http://un.org.
24. Transforming Our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, By the United Nations, http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org.
25. The Jerusalem Post, January 8, 2016, By Yasser Okbi and Maariv Hashavua, http://jpost.com.
26. Christian News, January 9, 2016, By Heather Clark, http://christiannews.net.
27. Ibid.
28. The Christian Post, January 20, 2016, By Katherine Weber, http://christianpost.com.
29. BBC News, January 22, 2016, By BBC News, http://bbc.com.
30. CNBC, January 21, 2016, By CNBC, http://cnbc.com.
31. The Examiner, January 20, 2016, By Timothy Whiteman, http://examiner.com.
32. The Independent, January 5, 2016, By Doug Bolton, http://independent.co.uk.
33. BBC News, January 5, 2016, By BBC News, http://bbc.com.
34. The Guardian, January 11, 2016, By David Crouch, http://theguardian.com.

To learn more about the history of our ministry and our founder, Pastor David J. Meyer, please visit http://pastormeyer.org.

Comments regarding this newsletter or topic suggestions may be submitted to editor@lasttrumpetnewsletter.org.
If you would like to submit a prayer request, you may send email to prayer@ltmmail.org or mail it to our postal address.

This newsletter is made possible by the kind donations of our supporters. If you would like to help us, you may send your contribution to our postal address or donate online at http://lasttrumpetnewsletter.org/donate.


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"This is Christ's church"



God has a church. It is not the great cathedral, neither is it the national establishment, neither is it the various denominations; it is the people who love God and keep His commandments. “Where two or three are gathered together in my name, there am I in the midst of them” (Matthew 18:20). Where Christ is even among the humble few, this is Christ's church, for the presence of the High and Holy One who inhabiteth eternity can alone constitute a church.


Where two or three are present who love and obey the commandments of God, Jesus there presides, let it be in the desolate place of the earth, in the wilderness, in the city enclosed in prison walls. The glory of God has penetrated the prison walls, flooding with glorious beams of heavenly light the darkest dungeon. His saints may suffer, but their sufferings will, like the apostles of old, spread their faith and win souls to Christ and glorify His holy name. The bitterest opposition expressed by those who hate God's great moral standard of righteousness should not and will not shake the steadfast soul who trusts fully in God....

The Upward Look, p.315

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The History of Black History



by Elissa Haney




Dr. Carter G. Woodson


Americans have recognized black history annually since 1926, first as "Negro History Week" and later as "Black History Month." What you might not know is that black history had barely begun to be studied-or even documented-when the tradition originated. Although blacks have been in America at least as far back as colonial times, it was not until the 20th century that they gained a respectable presence in the history books.

Blacks Absent from History Books

We owe the celebration of Black History Month, and more importantly, the study of black history, to Dr. Carter G. Woodson. Born to parents who were former slaves, he spent his childhood working in the Kentucky coal mines and enrolled in high school at age twenty. He graduated within two years and later went on to earn a Ph.D. from Harvard. The scholar was disturbed to find in his studies that history books largely ignored the black American population-and when blacks did figure into the picture, it was generally in ways that reflected the inferior social position they were assigned at the time.

Established Journal of Negro History

Woodson, always one to act on his ambitions, decided to take on the challenge of writing black Americans into the nation's history. He established the Association for the Study of Negro Life and History (now called the Association for the Study of Afro-American Life and History) in 1915, and a year later founded the widely respected Journal of Negro History. In 1926, he launched Negro History Week as an initiative to bring national attention to the contributions of black people throughout American history.

Woodson chose the second week of February for Negro History Week because it marks the birthdays of two men who greatly influenced the black American population, Frederick Douglass and Abraham Lincoln. However, February has much more than Douglass and Lincoln to show for its significance in black American history. For example:

February 23, 1868:
W. E. B. DuBois, important civil rights leader and co-founder of the NAACP, was born.

February 3, 1870:
The 15th Amendment was passed, granting blacks the right to vote.

February 25, 1870:
The first black U.S. senator, Hiram R. Revels (1822-1901), took his oath of office.

February 12, 1909:
The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) was founded by a group of concerned black and white citizens in New York City.

February 1, 1960:
In what would become a civil-rights movement milestone, a group of black Greensboro, N.C., college students began a sit-in at a segregated Woolworth's lunch counter.

February 21, 1965:
Malcolm X, the militant leader who promoted Black Nationalism, was shot to death by three Black Muslims.

More from the Black History Timeline


Source

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Deadly California weather leaves 150,000 without power (2-1-16)







By Holly Yan, CNN


Updated 1:59 AM ET, Mon February 1, 2016



Strong winds pummel Southern California 00:49


Story highlights
A driver was killed when an 80-foot tree fell on a car
Hundreds of work crews are trying to restore power to more than 150,000 people



(CNN)Ferocious winds and intense rains pummeled Southern California, leaving one driver dead and more than 150,000 in the dark.

Massive trees snapped like toothpicks, causing damage from San Diego to north of Los Angeles.

In San Diego, an 80-foot tall tree fell on a car Sunday, killing the driver, Fire-Rescue Capt. Joe Amador said.

Across Southern California, hundreds of work crews scrambled to try to restore power to more than 150,000 people who lost electricity in the storm.



An 80-foot-tall tree fell on a car in San Diego, killing the driver.

And there's more fierce weather to come. Powerful winds from 25-40 mph will gust up to 60 mph Monday from the mountains of Los Angeles to San Diego, CNN meteorologist Rachel Aissen said.

Some residents in Los Angeles County could see 2 to 4 inches of snow Monday, Aissen said. Areas with higher elevations -- over 4,000 feet -- could get more than 6 inches of snow.

The utility company Southern California Edison has sent 200 crews to help 80,000 customers without power. It gave several tips for dealing with power outages and protecting against power surges:

-- Always back up important work and files on computers

-- Keep gas tanks at least half full, as gas stations need electricity to pump gas

-- Install surge protectors to safeguard valuable electronics

Ice dams choke off community

The intense weather wasn't limited to Southern California.

In the northeast part of the state, ice dams formed on the South Fork of the Yuba River, CNN affiliate KCRA reported.



Ice dam flooding shuts down California community 01:11

The frozen blockades -- and a recent onslaught of rain -- caused a backlog of water, flooding parts of Soda Springs, the affiliate said.

"We can blame it on El Nino," Vick Ferrera of the Nevada County Office of Emergency Services told KCRA.

By Sunday night, the affiliate said, crews managed to break through an ice dam, allowing some of the water to subside.

CNN's Joe Sutton, Carma Hassan and Jackie Castillo contributed to this report.



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The Paradoxical Origin of Climate Alarmism





February 1, 2016

By Ari Halperin


Three feet of snow on the streets of New York and Washington is mocking global warming alarmists. The natural sciences tell us that the alarmists got everything wrong: anthropogenic carbon release is not dangerous or even harmful, but extremely beneficial. 15% of the world’s agricultural production is due to the increased concentration of carbon dioxide in the air. What’s more, the global mean temperature has not been increasing for 19 years, and the slight warming expected from the emission of the infra-red absorbing gases is expected to be beneficial in itself. And contrary to the alarmists’ claims, ocean water is alkaline, not acidic. See this short summary of science for more. Listing all the scientific errors made by the alarmists would take many pages, not to mention their logical fallacies, economic delusions, civic blunders, etc. So how did it happen that such a worthless agenda became so powerful? In large degree, it’s because it was worthless!

The weakness (or absence) of scientific support behind climate alarmism became its political strength.

Normally, political issues are real, in the sense that they represent real problems or real conflicts in society. Real issues -- drug addiction, poverty, illness, or abortion -- allow people to express different views or to take different sides. But the issue that gave birth to climate alarmism is different: the alleged problem (possible harm or danger from carbon dioxide emissions) simply does not exist. Most people are not interested in imaginary problems, and quite a few scientists, statesmen, and journalists came to the correct conclusion that the carbon dioxide/global warming/climate change problem did not exist. Naturally, they did not participate in research or discussion on this topic, which allowed those who believed in the alleged problem to monopolize the topic. And the more strongly somebody believed, the stronger his or her voice was in the discussion. This happened even before they gain enough power and money to chase away sceptics or buy supporters.

Let me clarify a few points before I get into the history. Climate change is real. The climate change problem is not. Scientists have opposed climate alarmism from the beginning to protect the integrity of science. Some of them recognized the alarmism as a problem in itself. Good, competent people passed on addressing the alleged climate problem because they were not convinced of its significance, especially compared with other changes happening in the world. That said, even if all the reasonable scientific uncertainties were resolved in favor of alarmism, and even if we accepted many of the alarmist fallacies, that still wouldn’t justify the alarm.

It all started in the 1970s, when the possibility of global warming from anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide was seriously addressed as a potential concern. At that time there were significant scientific uncertainties regarding the issue, so some scientists concluded that some concern was justified, while others concluded that it was not. The government tried to convene a group of top scientists to consider this potential concern. But top scientists can choose what to work on, so there was considerable self-selection: the concerned scientists were overrepresented in the discussion, while the skeptical views were underrepresented. One result of this self-selection: in 1979 both the Charney and MacDonald (JASON) committees, apparently working independently of each other, arrived at the same climate sensitivity value, almost double the number that Guy Callendar calculated in 1938. And Callendar's result was more accurate!

But so far, so good -- no real harm done, just an interesting social dynamic that can be recognized only in hindsight. Scientists who expressed concerns did so because they developed or accepted theories exaggerating the possible negative consequences of CO2. This led to a one-sided selection of the science as well: more alarming climate theories, models, and scenarios received broader consideration than non-alarming ones. Despite this adverse selection and exaggerated estimate of the climate sensitivity, neither committee sounded alarm or recommended that the government take any action but to continue research.

Then, for no good reason, Congress authorized the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee (CDAC), and tasked it with a comprehensive evaluation of the possible dangers from CO2 release. Naturally, CDAC had to consider (or even develop) the most alarming theories and scenarios. In 1983 CDAC delivered what became known as Nierenberg Report, advising “concern, not panic” and rejecting climate alarmism once again.

Unfortunately, UN agencies and environmental NGOs (mostly of foreign origin) picked up the issue and started running with it. There was no shadow of good faith in the way in which they handpicked “experts” from the environmentalist movement and from the bottom of the scientific establishment, fishing for yes-men worldwide. These bottom-dwellers went on cherry picking not only the data, but even the physical effects. This was not hard, because the real scientists and those who cared to consult them were staying out of the topic, rather than opposing the alarmist agenda. As Richard Lindzen wrote in 1992: "As most scientists concerned with climate, I was eager to stay out of what seemed like a public circus." Cherry picking was made easier by the huge amounts of money lavished on climate science starting in the 1980s.

It might sound surprising today, but the alarmists announced "scientific consensus" as early as 1988, following the infamous Toronto Conference. After that, the intimidation and persecution of openly dissenting scientists started. From the same article by Lindzen:


"But in the summer of 1988 Lester Lave, a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, wrote to me about being dismissed from a Senate hearing for suggesting that the issue of global warming was scientifically controversial. I assured him that the issue was not only controversial but also unlikely. In the winter of 1989 Reginald Newell, a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, lost National Science Foundation funding for data analyses that were failing to show net warming over the past century. Reviewers suggested that his results were dangerous to humanity."

Thus, fear of retaliation buttressed the normal reluctance of competent scientists to engage with a non-existing problem. When Al Gore became Vice President in 1993, all hell broke loose, but that’s a story for another article.

It looks like the climate alarmists understood how lucrative the pursuit of imaginary problems could be for them. Many environmentalist scares started as similarly non-existent issues, which only became real (in the sense defined above) when lawmakers tried to address them. The proposed laws naturally affected the public, thus creating an opposition. In many cases the enviros won anyway, but at least there was a fight.

It seems like the climate alarmists learned from that experience, so they started proposing solutions so unrealistic that they were beyond sane discussion. One example is their crowning demand to keep future Earth temperature change below 2°C forever. Do they really think that humans control Earth’s temperature? At COP21, they went even further and tightened this "goal" to 1.5°C. Another example is the call to lower CO2 in the air to 350 ppm, down from the current 400 ppm. 350.org, one of the most visible alarmist organizations, took its name from this number. When the Senate rejected the Kyoto protocol before it was even signed (with a 95-0 vote), it removed this alleged problem from the table for some time, but let it keep its cloak of effective obscurity.

In the absence of any organized opposition, the alarmists were able to appoint an enemy at will. They selected fossil fuel corporations as the strawman target. Energy and oil companies have no more interest in opposing climate alarmism than anybody else, are forbidden from opposing it by laws and court decisions, suffer from negative public image, and present an attractive target for trial lawyers. The fate of British Petroleum (BP) following the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion is an illustration of how vulnerable our society is to political attacks on its energy suppliers.

Unlike climate change, climate alarmism is a problem, a large and underestimated social problem, not something confined to the energy sector. Its fingerprints are everywhere, from corruption of American universities and scientific institutions to the extreme political polarization. Trying to minimize economic damages is not enough - we should address the problem itself.

Further reading:

Richard Lindzen. Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus, 1992.

This short article contains firsthand witness testimony on how climate science was subverted by Climatism. Lindzen’s succinct analysis is still relevant today. If you want to read only one article on the origins of the climate hysteria, this is the one.

Rupert Darwall. The Age of Global Warming: A History, 2014.

A book about the history of climate politics, written from a neutral perspective.

Ari Halperin researches and writes about climate alarmism as a complex and dangerous phenomenon.


Jeb Bush attends Sunday mass at Dubuque cathedral





IOWA CAUCUSES

Jason Noble, jnoble2@dmreg.com

2 hours ago


DUBUQUE, Ia. — Jeb Bush began his final full day campaigning in Iowa quietly and reflectively, taking in Mass at the Cathedral of St. Raphael here.

Bush typically returns home to Miami on Sundays to attend mass and spend time with his family. Sunday, though, is the last day of a statewide campaign swing ahead of Monday’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.



Jason Noble/The Register

Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush talks with man outside the Cathedral of St. Raphael in Dubuque on Sunday morning. Bush attended mass at the church on the final day before Iowa caucuses.

He is heading to New Hampshire later Monday to campaign.

He was joined at church by his wife, Columba; son, Jeb Jr.; and Leo Thorsness, the retired Air Force colonel and Medal of Honor recipient who has campaigned extensively with Bush in recent months. They took a pew at the center of the sprawling sanctuary, Bush huddled close to his wife throughout the service and frequently leaning over to whisper in her ear.

Associate Pastor Alan Dietzenbach began his homily by describing a moment in a previous service when he’d recognized a man in the crowd but couldn’t place his face. Afterward, he asked the man if he knew him from somewhere.

“He said, ‘Well, I’m Rick Santorum, and I’m running for president,’ ” Dietzenbach recalled, drawing a laugh from Bush and the rest of the crowd.

The rest of the homily explored the challenges facing prophets who try to spread the Gospel but find audiences uninterested or unwilling to hear them.

Afterward, as Dietzenbach greeted parishioners at the back of the sanctuary, he clutched Bush’s hand and said with a smile, “I know who you are.”

This being Iowa in the waning hours of the caucus campaign, there was one more moment of political serendipity. Just as Bush exited the sanctuary, two men approached him and struck up a conversation. They were Robert and Ronnie Paul — brothers of Bush’s 2016 presidential rival Rand Paul.

It turns out the Pauls and Bushes have a bit of history. Bush’s father was a congressman from Texas in the 1960s, while the Paul brothers’ father, Ron Paul, served several terms in Congress beginning in the '70s. (Both represented the Houston area and both also ran for president, albeit with varying degrees of success.)

Ronnie reminded Bush of a campaign event they’d attended together in Texas in 1980, one in which Jeb Bush caused some kind of stir with an unfortunate “slip of the tongue” during a speech. Bush remembered the moment immediately.

“Hey, don’t spread that story around,” Bush joked as he and Ronnie Paul parted ways.

“Yeah, we’re gonna tell everybody!” Paul replied with a chuckle.

“There’s a statute of limitations on that,” Bush said.

From Dubuque, Bush headed to Hiawatha for a rally with supporters and volunteers at his Cedar Rapids-area campaign office. He was there joined by his wife, who rarely appears on the campaign trail.

He went on to Davenport, where he urged voters not to write him off, then called on Republican caucusgoers to back his mix of government reforms, military strength and experience.

Bush said a reporter who interviewed him earlier in the day was speaking as if he’d already lost the caucuses.

“I’m thinking, dude, last time I checked it's 7 p.m. tomorrow when Iowans make this decision,” Bush said to cheers to a crowd of about 300 at a Elks Lodge.

USA Today reporter Trevor Hughes contributed to this story.


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